國內抑制房價政策對房地產交易影響-以台北市及新北市為例

Restrain policy on real estate transactions affecting - Taipei City and New Taipei City

陳佳延(Chia-Yen Chen)

指導教授 ： 趙慕芬

淡江大學/管理學院/企業管理學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.01307

摘要

2009年政府調降遺贈稅至10%，吸引大量海外台資回台，因受限於國內投資工具選擇不多及風險考量，加上對景氣看好且不動產保值性佳之因素，紛紛投入房地產市場，造成房價高漲。
政府居於各方壓力之下，也不樂見房價持續高漲，嚴重影響人民觀感，則採取政策手段因應。而自2009年來實施計有豪宅稅、奢侈稅、實價登錄、合宜住宅及選擇性信用管制等政策或法案，預期目的為抑制不合理的高房價。本研究以台北市及新北市屬都會區域房地產市場交易情形為研究對象，藉由事件研究法探討政策或法案，在宣告、立法通過或正式實施等時點，透過預售屋30天銷售率、第一次登記數、買賣移轉數及拍賣移轉數之變化，檢視抑制房地產市場的效果是否可得到預期效果。
本研究經實證結果及分析，歸納結論如下：
對抑制房市交易量具顯著之政策依效果多寡分別為實價登錄，次之為奢侈稅，再者為豪宅稅、合宜住宅與選擇性信用管制實施。實價登錄之政策對未來可能做為實價課稅依據及排除房市交易資訊不對稱因素等，對房市交易量影響效果較大。奢侈稅有二年內再次交易之不動產納入課稅範圍，短期則有壓抑效果；豪宅稅主要實施於台北市部份區域且影響戶數約為二仟餘戶，影響層面小且著重宣示效果。合宜住宅則以增加房屋供給量，影響僅於區域內之同性質產品。選擇性信用管制在目前利率水準處於歷年低點時期，影響仍有限。上述三項政策在抑制房市交易量效果較為不足。

關鍵字

事件研究法 ； 豪宅稅 ； 奢侈稅 ； 實價登錄 ； 合宜住宅 ； 選擇性信用管制實施

並列摘要

In 2009, Taiwanese Government cut inheritance tax down to 10%. This results of oversea Taiwanese capital shifting back. However, in a condition of lacks of investment tool, combing with risks consideration, optimistic on economy and seeking real estate as a good hedge against inflation, real estate market became a popular financial products and result in price rising in real estate market.

Stressed of social aspects and rising in real estate price, Taiwanese government starts to implement different policies. Since 2009, here are more and more polices and bills such as the Mansion Tax, Luxury Tax, Nett login, Desirable Residential and Selective Credit Control polices, etc. are being implemented for controlling price rising in real estate market. In this study, Taipei and New Taipei Cities are studied groups for metropolitan area real estate market. To test the desirable effects of real estate market, event study methodology is applied in this study to compare different policy/bill exploration, legislature through the formal implementation of the point in time such as the rate of home sales and existing home transfer changes in quantity.

After analysis of empirical results, this study is summarized as following:

To curb rising price in real estate market, different polices reveals in different levels of efficiency. In an order from most efficient to the least, Nett Login plays as the most powerful policy and Luxury Tax is the next, followed by Mansion Tax, Appropriate Residential and finally the Selective Credit Control. Since Nett registration policy is overall the best policy, this study suggests it can be applied as the future taxable basis and to exclude the real estate information asymmetry. Furthermore, the Luxury Tax works out in short-term also because it taxes transactions within two year; however, it only targets about 2000 households in Great Taipei area and declaration seems to be the mainly focus of this policy. Appropriate Housing Policy increases in supply housing, but only affects in the region with the similar products. And impacts of Selective Credit Control are also limited because current interest rate is at a relatively lower point. Thus, above three polices are relatively inadequate in controlling price rising in real estate market.

並列關鍵字

Event Study method ； Mansion tax ； Luxury tax ； Nett login ； Appropriate Residential ； The implementation of the selective credit control

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