中共海軍戰略的轉變因素及趨勢之研究（1949-2007）

A Study on Changing Factors and Trends of PLAN’s Strategy from 1949 to 2007

陳德育(Te-Yu Chen)

指導教授 ： 曾復生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2008.01097

摘要

中華人民共和國於1949年建立新政權時，中共海軍才開始著手組建。當時由於內外環境的影響及國根基礎未定，海軍僅持近岸防禦戰略，以行支援陸空軍防衛陸上及海上交通要道之安全。1985年6月鄧小平於中央軍委會會議中，宣布未來將以和平建軍方式取代過去立足早打、大打、打核戰的臨戰準備狀態，這項指示使中共海軍跳脫以往以陸制海的束縛，其海軍戰略由「近岸防禦」向「近海防禦」戰略轉變。隨著改革開放持續發酵，綜合國力逐步增長，其海權意識、主權與海上利益維護也相對高漲下，加上中共明瞭為了維持擁有13億人口的大國生存及確保中國共產黨政權永續經營，唯有不斷的尋求海外貿易及能源進口，方能在亞太地區佔有首席之地。因此，中共海軍被賦予保護國家及海上運輸航道安全之主要單位，成為中共建軍之優先選項。如今從江澤民以至胡錦濤時期，中共海軍現代化計畫除以軍購和自行研建新型水面作戰艦艇及核動力潛艦等雙向並行發展外，同時戰略目標更從北方向東南海域轉移，未來可能進一步深入印度洋以為能源運輸船隻保駕護航，再者更朝向攫取臺灣與突破美日圍堵直接挑戰美國的遠洋海軍目標邁進。因此，本研究的目的為從政治、經濟與軍事等面向予以檢視，審慎探討分析中共自1949至2007年各時期海軍戰略轉變因素及發展趨勢，並進行客觀之評估，以及對我國家安全所造成的影響。本研究發現，中共發展海軍戰略之戰略意涵及趨勢評估，說明了中共為追求國家利益及崛起的地位，已漸次由區域性海軍向全球性遠洋海軍發展與布局，進而發展成為一個具全球影響力的大國。

關鍵字

海軍戰略 ； 中共海軍

並列摘要

The PRC did not establish its Navy until its regime was set up in 1949. Due to internal and external situation along with national capacity still under development, People’s Liberation Army Navy（PLAN）, premised upon littoral defense strategy, aimed at providing ground and air defense and maintaining maritime communication security. In June 1985, Deng Xiaoping declared in a meeting of the Central Military Commission that the PLA would adopt the doctrine of peaceful military buildup in replace of the past combat readiness based on the principles of“fighting early, fighting a large scale war and fighting a nuclear war.”Under Deng’s instruction, PLAN abandoned the strategy of dominating the sea through the ground, with its strategy shifting from“littoral defense”to“coastal defense.”
With China’s integrated national capacity steadily boosted by its Reform and Open Policy, China becomes aware of the importance of obtaining sea power, maritime sovereignty and maritime interests. Furthermore, China understand that only constantly in pursuit of expanding foreign trade and imported energy can China ensure the survival of its 1.3 billion people and secure Communist Party of China’s everlasting regime. Thus China can play a role in Asia Pacific Region. Consequently, PLAN is tasked to maintain security of maritime communication lines, which is also listed as a top priority of China’s military build-up.
From Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao, PLAN has been carrying out its Modernization Plan through acquiring and manufacturing new types of surface combat vessels and nuclear powered submarines, while shifting its strategic focus northern Mainland China to coastal areas of Southeast China. In the future, it is possible that PLAN will further deploy deep into Indian Ocean to provide escort for its ships responsible for transporting crude oil. In addition, PLAN is likely to move toward the goal of establishing a blue water navy capable of seizing Taiwan, precluding US-Japan joint containment, and directly challenging the US Navy.
Therefore, the study is aimed at, from the facets of politics, economics and military, examining and analyzing the changing factors and developing trends of PLAN strategies in different periods from 1949 to 2007. Besides, to reach an objective assessment and to explore what impacts will be on ROC’s national security is also another purpose. The implications of PLAN’s strategies and trends assessed show that to pursue its national interests and emerging status, China is prompting PLAN to steadily transform from a local navy to a global blue water navy, with a stronger ambition to emerge as a great power with global influence.

並列關鍵字

Naval Strategy ； People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)

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