本研究旨在探討新十號對投資人情緒的影響,以週轉率和淨個人投資交易衡量投資人情緒,採用事件研究法,分析該公報在修訂期間和政府政策反覆期間投資人情緒是否受到影響。並應用似乎不相關回歸模式,分析投資人情緒是否因產業不同而有不同影響。 實證結果顯示,不論使用週轉率和淨個人投資交易衡量投資人情緒,在新十號修訂期間對投資人情緒都有影響,但分別呈現負面與正面反應。本研究推論為以週轉率衡量投資人情緒是可以反映機構投資人情緒,而以淨個人投資交易衡量反映散戶投資人之情緒。此外,在政策反覆期間也是顯示投資人情緒受到影響。 在各產業部分,以週轉率衡量投資人情緒,草案修訂過程確實因產業不同而對投資人有不同影響;但是,以淨個人投資交易衡量,則只有部分事件因產業不同而對投資人情緒有不同影響。另一方面,以週轉率衡量投資人情緒,政策反覆期間會因產業不同而對投資人情緒有不同影響。但是,以淨個人投資交易衡量投資人情緒則不因產業而對投資人情緒有不同影響。
This study explore the impacts of the developing new No.10 and the inconsistent attitudes of the authority on investor sentiment through the event study method .We also investigate whether the investor sentiment be different among various types of industries through seemingly unrelated regression. Turnover Rate (TURN) and Net Individual Trading (NIT) represent the investors’ sentiments. The empirical results are as follows. First, the empirical results show that, events during the period of the developing new No.10 have negative influence on investor sentiment by TURN, but positive influence on investor sentiment by NIT. We argue that TURN can represent all investors’ behavior including institutional investors and NIT show individuals’ trading activities only. Moreover, the inconsistent attitude of the government also affects investor sentiments in terms of TURN and NIT. Lastly, the developing new No.10 has different impacts on investor sentiment among different industrial sectors by TURN and NIT. However, during the period of inconsistent attitude of government investor sentiment show different among industries by TURN, but indicates no significantly difference by NIT.