先進國家風力發電走勢分析：OECD縱橫資料分析

Wind Power Trend Analysis for Advanced Countries：OECD Panel Data Analysis

陳雅文(Ya-Wen Chen)

指導教授 ： 廖惠珠

淡江大學/商管學院/經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.01084

摘要

由於全球能源使用的增加，以及國際對地球環境改善的重視，近年再生能源逐漸被廣泛應用，而風力發電是目前全球再生能源中僅次於水力發電占比最高的再生能源，因此風力發電對各國家的能源與電力的影響成為國際間重要的議題。
　　檢視各國風力發電之發展，可發現目前多個先進國家風力發電占總發電之比例明顯較高，其中丹麥、葡萄牙、西班牙，其風力發電占總發電之比例均高達20%上下。為何這些國家的風力發電占比會如此高，值得深入探討。
　　本研究使用OECD 32個先進國家1960-2013之年資料，並使用靜態縱橫資料、結構轉變與動態縱橫資料三種模型，以評估各能源發電以及經濟變數等，對風力發電發展之影響。其結果顯示，人口、GDP與電價對風力發電電力產出皆有顯著正向影響。而再生能源躉購費率(FIT)亦可提升風力發電之發展。另外，本研究亦發現先進國家風力發電發展有明顯之學習效果，可藉由前期風力發電之投入，逐步改進其技術等，以增加後期風力發電之發展。

關鍵字

風力發電 ； 靜態縱橫資料模型 ； 結構轉變 ； 動態縱橫資模型

並列摘要

Renewable energy was widely used in recent years due to the increasing energy use and the need for global environment enhancement. Except hydro, wind power is the world highest renewable energy sources currently, thus the impact of wind power generation on energy and electricity turns out to be an important issue in many countries.
Examining the world wind power development, we find the relative share of the wind power generation on total power generation are higher than 20% in some advanced countries, such as Denmark, Portugal and Spain. It is worthy to explore why the proportion of wind power generation in these countries are so higher.
In this study, we use OECD 32 advanced countries 1960-2013 yearly data, and apply three kinds of model (i.e. panel data analysis, structural change and dynamic panel data analysis) to evaluate how the wind power development is influenced by the energy generation and economic variables. The empirical results suggest that the population, GDP and the electricity price can significantly improve the wind power generation. The implement of FIT policy can also enhance the development of wind power. In addition, we also found that the advanced countries have significant wind power development learning effect. More wind power investment is found by accompanying with the more wind power use in the earlier period.

並列關鍵字

wind power ； panel data analysis ； structural change ； dynamic panel data analysis

參考文獻

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