台灣地區氣候改變與自殺率趨勢之十年相關研究

Climate Change in Relation to the Suicide Rates in Taiwan: A Ten-Year Trend Study

謝佳諭(Chia-Yu Hsieh)

指導教授 ： 楊浩然

中山醫學大學/健康管理學院/公共衛生學系碩士班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6834/CSMU.2011.00059

摘要

目的：近年來，氣候改變已為環境、生態及經濟帶來巨大的衝擊，然而卻鮮少研究探討氣候改變對於個體心理衛生的影響，因此本研究連結自殺、氣象、全台人口統計及經濟資料庫，利用十年的時間序列分析來探討氣候環境的改變與自殺率之間的關係。
方法：連結民國88-97年間台灣行政院衛生署的死亡資料庫與中央氣象局的氣象資料庫，以描述性統計表示十年間性別與氣象資料的分布情形，再以多變項分析來看自殺與氣象的橫斷面相關，最後在迴歸分析中放入經濟指標及重大事件控制來看自殺率與氣象因素間之時序性的關係。
結果：在控制了經濟因素及重大事件後，十年間，台灣地區男女性的自殺率有上升的趨勢，且男性自殺率高於女性。氣壓、氣溫、相對濕度與日照時數在十年間相對穩定，然而單月降雨量超過500豪米的次數卻在93年後明顯的上升，且男女性的自殺人數也在93年後開始與降雨量出現顯著正相關，時序性的分析也有相同的現象，另外本研究也發現遞延五期的氣壓與自殺率也是呈現顯著正相關的結果。
結論：除了個人所會暴露到的危險因子外，大環境的氣象因子也會造成自殺率的上升。

關鍵字

氣候改變 ； 自殺 ； 時間序列

並列摘要

Objectives: Climate change has brought a great impact on environment, ecology, and economics. However, little is known about whether and how climate change influence individual’s mental health. This study used two datasets to examine the relationships between 10-year trend of various meteorological factors and suicide rates in Taiwan.
Methods: Four sets of data were linked in the analyses of this study. Descriptive statistics were used to show distribution of meteorological variables and suicide rate. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted annually to examine whether these meteorological variables predict concurrent suicide. Time series analyses were performed to verify whether suicide rate was associated with the trend of climate change.
Results: During 1999-2008, an increasing suicide rate emerged in Taiwan, especially for males. The pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine hours remained relatively stable during the observed 10 years; while the frequencies of heavy rainfall, defined as over 500 mm within one single month, increased dramatically after 2004 and its concurrent effect on suicide rate was also significant since 2004. A similar pattern was found in the time series analysis as well. In addition to heavy rainfall, pressure also showed a significant effect on suicide rate.
Conclusion: With respect to the risk factors of suicide, not only individual level factors but also macro level factors such as climate change play a role on the increasing suicide rate during the past decade in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

climate change ； suicide ； time series

參考文獻

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