現今幾乎所有的決策者,都為了如何下決策所困擾,常用的NPV法也無法適用於現今多變的環境,在過去十年中,實質選擇權的發展及應用,在工程專案的決策上愈來愈成熟。本研究在探討如何在現今多變的競爭市場中,不確定的市場需求是決策者在做決策時應該要考慮的重要因素,本研究提供決策者一個更精確的決策模式。 因為賽局理論的價值在於能夠描述競爭互動的情境,而實質選擇權的分析觀念能夠協助決策者找出最適的折現水準、描述動態競爭策略、並提供正確地評價結果。所以本研究結合實質選擇權的決策彈性與賽局理論的分析模式,來減少NPV法中固定的折現率和不能延遲投資的缺點,更進一步地利用風險中立法,重新分析Nash-Cournot和Nash-Stackelberg均衡。研究中發現在需求波動的情況下,傳統的NPV低估了專案的價值,決策者在做賽局理論分析時可能做出錯誤的決策,在加入風險中立法的分析後,決策者能得到更精確的專案價值,並做出更好的決策。
Nowadays, there are many decision makers struggled to make good decision. The NPV method, the most common way decision makers would use to exercise, can not provide appropriate decision in this changing and dynamic environment. Over the past decade, the development and application of real options become more and more mature in the decision of engineering projects. In this investigation we verify that the fluctuation of market demand has become one of the most important factors while the enterprise executives make decisions in today’s ever-changing environment. In this investigation, a more accurate model is provided for decision makers. The value of game theory is that it can show the interacting situations of competition, whereas the value of real options is that the analysis concept can help decision makers find the suitable discount rate, show the dynamic competition strategy, and provide the evaluating outcomes accurately. This investigation combines the decision flexibility of real options with the analysis approach of game theory to reduce the defects, the fixed discount rate and the inability to postpone the investment, in NPV method. This investigation utilizes the risk-neutral method to analyze Nash-Cournot and Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium again. In this study, we find the value of projects in traditional NPV is underestimated when the demand fluctuates, decision makers may make an inappropriate decision. After integrating the risk-neutral method with game theory, decision makers can get a more accurate value of project and make better decisions.
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