近年來國內經濟的快速發展,金融商品也趨於多元化,由專業基金經理人管理的共同基金成為現代人投資的熱門工具。大多數的共同基金投資行為研究,多以問卷的方式了解投資行為,但受限於問卷資料類型,無法真正了解投資人在面對不同金融市場訊息時的實際買賣行為。本研究透過貝氏羅吉斯統計模型的建構,分析共同基金投資人自2007至2010年之實際交易資料,以探討金融海嘯前後影響投資決策之國際重要指標。實證發現,在金融風暴過後,轉而關注風險較低的債劵型基金,顯示投資人的投資行為趨向保守與穩健投資,不再熱衷高風險的金融工具。投資人也比較重視資產多元配置的概念,也顯示金融風暴過後投資人會依自己的屬性並視時機調整比重。在國際重要指標上,台灣加權股市依舊是投資人在進行投資決策時重要依據。
Due to the prosperous growth of global economy and the introduction of various investment products, mutual funds have become one of the most popular investment tools. To further investigate how investment decision was influenced by multifarious global economy factors, especially before and after Financial Crisis of 2008, Bayesian logistic model is used to analyze mutual fund transaction data collected from 2007 to 2010. The empirical result shows that, after financial crisis, mutual fund investors were no longer betted on high-risk financial instrument, but they attempted to manage their risk by investing in multiple asset classes or lower-risk bond funds. It is also found that mutual fund investment decision is primarily affected by Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index