不確定性下緊急避難中心模式規劃-台中縣豐原市

The Facility of Urgent Refuge Sites under Uncertainty-Feng Yuan City Taichung County

劉克彥(Ke- Yan Liu)

指導教授 ： 林榮禾

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/工業工程與管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

台灣為亞熱帶海島氣候型國家，又位於太平洋之火山島弧上。因此常見之天然災害，如921地震、八八水災、土石流等災害，為台灣帶來嚴重災情。而目前國內相關法例及研究，大多僅針對緊急性避難據點的規模和數量。然而，避難機制的擬定及緊急性避難據點配置的是值得探討研究。因此本研究針對現有已開發設置之緊急性避難據點，以區位覆蓋（LSCP）模式去探討實證地區緊急性避難據點之最適區位配置，並建立實證地區之避難據點空間資料庫。希望減少不確定參數對據點選擇結果的影響，故透過穩健最佳化模型來反映解的穩健性，達到公平性與效率性之都市緊急性避難據點之最適區位配置模式。最後以進行緊急性避難據點之合理服務範圍、規模等研究，並使用啟發式演算法分析最適區位配置結果在現實狀況中配置之可行性。並藉由實際操作模擬台灣各地區情形及人口數量，建立最適合的緊急避難模式規劃。

關鍵字

區域覆蓋 ； 緊急性避難據點 ； 穩健最佳化

並列摘要

As an island characterized by a subtropical climate and located on the volcanic island arch of the Pacific Rim, Taiwan has been vulnerable to natural disasters. The 921 earthquake, 88 floods, and mugslides, for example, have caused devastating damages. However, current policies and extant researches focus mainly on the number and scale of urgent refuge sites. Not many studies have been dedicated to address the distribution and location of urgent refuge sites. The study accordingly proposes a three-year project to develop an optimal USR geographic allocation model. I focus on adopting the LSCP(Location Set Covering Problem) optimization model to identify the optimal geographic allocation ofexisting urgent refuge sites in a selected diagnosis region. Meanwhile a URS spatial databank for the diagnosis region will also be established. reduce the influences of uncertain parameters on the results of geographic allocation by applying the robust optimization (RO) approach to test the efficacy (robustness) of the proposed optimal URS geographic allocation model in terms of fairness and efficiency. performs further studies on the reasonable service scope and scale of the urgent refuge sites, using.heuristic Algorithm to assess if the obtained optimal geographic allocation can beeffectively applied to real-life situations. Moreover, simulation will be conducted based on the status of roads and the size of population in different regions in Taiwan so as to establish an optimal model for URS planning.

並列關鍵字

The region cover ； urgent refuge site ； robust optimization

參考文獻

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