目前國內進行重大開發案之前,依相關法令規定需先進行環境影響評估,而開發計畫空氣污染物排放量於實際開發前,以擴散模式預先進行污染物增量及影響範圍之預測,以避免實際開發後造成環境有重大影響之虞。本研究挑選六個案例研究類型,分別探討不同地形(複雜地形及平坦地形)、人口類型(鄉村及都市),並於不同地區(臺北、新竹、苗栗、南投、彰化及台東)各選一處環境影響評估開發計畫案例,利用開發計畫原本ISCST3空氣品質模式相同的條件參數,以AERMOD模式重新模擬評估,探討AERMOD與ISCST3對於空氣污染物增量模擬結果之差異。 本研究結果顯示,在複雜或平坦地形之類型交叉分析中,並無一定結果顯示地形特性會影響兩擴散模式之濃度增量比例,粒狀物增量結果差異最大為都市類型(ISCST3最高為AERMOD增量濃度之1.96倍);氣狀污染物則以ISCST3之增量濃度模擬結果高之比例較多(65.38%),ISCST3增量濃度最高為AERMOD增量濃度之2.67倍。因垂直擴散處理機制不同,AERMOD濃度值較高佔40筆總數之20%,而AERMOD最大增量濃度較ISCST3高之比例約為42.50%,交叉比對,經擴散後低於ISCST3比例為22.50%,顯示AERMOD其沈降速率較快。 在複雜地形及地表特徵影響大之模擬範圍時,AERMOD在模擬計算上使用計算複雜地形分層流動及考量地表特徵影響,其學理基礎較較ISCST3完整,故模擬結果更具可信度。依據行政院環境保護署公告之「空氣污染物容許增量限值」規定,空氣污染物經模擬後其模擬範圍內各受體點或軌跡線或網格增加之濃度,應符合範圍內防制區之容許增量限值,顯示作為國內法規模式使用時,模擬結果與開發計畫場址選擇、開發規模大小及空氣污染防治設備之選用等均有影響,故使用模擬結果更準確之AERMOD,較ISCST3更加接近實際煙流擴散情況,在許可管制上更具公正性及科學性。
According to the current relevant regulations, the environmental impact assessment should be conducted before the domestic major development. Before carrying out the development plan, the air pollutant emission will be examined by using the diffusion model to predict the incremental pollutant results and the impact area. It is intended to avoid the significant environmental influences after the practical development. This research selects six case study types to explore the different landforms (complex terrain and flat terrain) and population geography (countryside and urban). The environmental impact assessment of the development cases selected from the different regions (Taipei, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Nantou, Changhua and Taitung) will be conducted by using the same ISCST3 air quality model parameters to simulate and evaluation again in AERMOD model. It is intended to explore the differences of the incremental air pollutants between the simulation results of AERMOD and ISCST3. The results of this research indicate that in the cross analysis of the types of complex terrain and flat terrain, there is no significant difference between them and it shows that the characteristics of terrain will not affect the two diffusion modes of the incremental concentration ratio. In addition, the results of the granular incremental show that the maximum difference is in city type (the highest incremental concentration of ISCST3 is 1.96 times to AERMOD) and the gas pollutants in ISCST3 of incremental concentration simulation results ratio reach to 65.38% more than others. The highest incremental concentration of ISCST3 is 2.67 times to AERMOD. Because of the differences of the vertical diffusion mechanisms, the concentration value of AERMOD higher than others reach to 20% in 40 of total. The ratio of maximum incremental concentration in AERMOD is higher than ISCST3 about 42.5%. By using the cross match of this two incremental concentration values, the ratio less than ISCST3 is 22.5% after proliferation. It shows that the sinking rate of AERMOD is much quicker than others. In consideration of the simulation areas which have large effects in complex terrain and surface characteristics, the simulation calculation of AERMOD uses the stratified flow over complex terrain and considers the effect in characteristics of the Earth's surface. The theoretical basis of AERMOD is solider than ISCST3. That is, the results of simulation are more credibility. According to the Notice of "air pollutant allowed incremental limited value" announced by the Environmental Protection Administration of Executive Yuan, the air pollutants affected by their points or track lines or network grids increased concentrations in simulation range should meet the range of allowed incremental limited value in anti-system area. It shows that if the proposed mode used in domestic regulations, it will affect the results of simulation, the selection of development plan sites, the size of development scale and the selection of air pollution control device, etc. Therefore, the simulation results of AERMOD are more accurate than ISCST3, and closer to the actual spread of smoke condition, and more fair and scientific in license control as well.
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