氣候變遷之災損價值及溫室氣體減量效益評估

To Analyze the Cost of Climate Chang to Natural Disasters and the Benefit of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction

林浩業(Hao-Yeh Lin)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究主要目標係探討我國因受溫室氣體逐年增加影響極端氣候發生，而導致農業經濟損失，影響健康衛生及直接衝擊人民安全之關係。研究分成2部分：第1部分，蒐集並統計臺灣地區過去49年(1961~2009年)二氧化碳排放量，國內生產毛額、人口總數、天災次數、平均溫度、降雨量，利用線性回歸模式探討氣象因子與天災農業經濟損失、天災死亡人數及醫療支出之關係，建立未來(2010∼2100年)氣象因子變化與各項危損失之預測模式。第2部分為應用上述預測之未來氣候變遷損失，估算二氧化碳及空氣污染防制減量效益，推算減量措施減少二氧化碳及空氣污染排放量後，整合代入「空氣資源整合效益模型(Air Resource Co-benefits Model, ARCoB Model)」，以評估2者作為減量效益之分析比較。
根據本研究結果得知，至2100年若台灣以以A1F1情境發展，則臺灣二氧化碳排放造成臺灣地區累計之天災經濟總體損失約4,554,377,520千元(新台幣，以2009年為基準每年均通貨膨脹率及GDP校正)，而2010~2100累計平均每噸二氧化碳之天災農業經濟損失、天災生命價值損失及氣候變遷之醫療支出分別為82.12元、36.45元、5,594元。其中，以氣候變遷造成之醫療費用支出比例最高，約佔全部損失之97%。主要原因醫療費用本身實際支出有持續性，如氣候引發慢性病可能會造成每年都會有醫療支出，農業經濟損失及天災生命損失則是單年損失。
接續透過空氣資源整合效益模式分析交通及住商部門之減量政策，並探討其效益，交通部門以油電混合車減量效益最高，跟汽油車比較起來約可增加6,714.16元/年˙輛；住商部門係以全臺灣全面以省電燈泡取代傳統鎢絲燈泡效益最高，全臺灣地區共約增加72,212,269千元/年。
更進一步細部分析減量效益，對於節省醫療支出效益方面，二氧化碳排放減量效益大於空氣污染排放減量效益；而在壽命增加效益方面，空氣污染排放減量效益會大於二氧化碳排放減量效益，主要原因為二氧化碳排放引發氣候變遷影響人類健康層面大於空氣污染排放。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 二氧化碳排放損失 ； 空氣資源整合效益模式

並列摘要

The objective of this study was to investigate the relation between climate change due to greenhouse gas increasing, and damage of agricultural ecomony, human health and safety. It could be divided into two parts; first part was to collect the analysis factors from 1961 to 2009, included the volumn of CO2 emission, GDP, the numbers of population, disaster, average temperature, and annual rainfall. We also calculated linear regression to set up the relation between climate factors and cost of agricultural ecomony, the disaster death and medical expenditure. Second part was to calculate the benefits of CO2 and air pollutant reduction and substituted into Air Resource Co-benefits Model (ARCoB Model) to campare the benefits from 2 types of reduction.
According to the first part result, based on A1F1 scenario, the total economy cost was NT$ 4,554,377,520 in Taiwan in 2100 (currency in 2100 would be adjusted by GDP and inflation), and the cost of agricultural ecomony, the disaster death and medical expenditure was NT$82.12/tCO2, NT$36.45/tCO2, NT$5,594/tCO2 separately from 2010 to 2100. The medical expenditure was the maximum and around 97% of the total cost. Because it was constant and extensive expenditure, for example, the cliamet change resulted in chronic disease would make medical expenditure for each year.
Second part was to investigate the benefit for CO2 emission reduction policy of transport, residential and commercial sectors. Accroding to the result, the hybrid electric vehicle was the maximum benefit among all policies of transport sector. Campred with the gasoline car, it could save NT$6,714.16/year-vehicle. For the residential and commercial sectors, the thetungsten lamp replaced with the compact fluorescent lamp was the maximum benefit among all policies, and saved NT$ 72,212,269,000/year among all households in Taiwan.
To analyze the benefit of emission reduction further, for saving medical expenditure, the benefit of CO2 emission reduction was better than air pollutant; for increasing the the value of statistical life, the air pollutant was better than another. Due to the healthy hazard from climate change was more than air pollutant.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Cost of CO2 emission ； ARCoB model

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