依據世界衛生組織的報告預測,在西元2020年時,全球十大死因當中,自殺將排名第九位(已開發國家為第八位),自殺在所有國家中已是一個重要的公共衛生議題。近年因全球經濟蕭條之衝擊,國家面臨財經困窘,進而造成人民生計或社會安全有關的議題,而經濟條件的變化又與證券市場有密切的關聯性,所謂「股市乃經濟之櫥窗」,近年金融海嘯的發生,重挫臺灣證券交易所發行量股價指數,許多人因投資失利致心情沮喪,造成憂鬱症並選擇以自殺結束生命。因此本研究中根據文獻研究結果篩選出影響加權股價指數的重要總體經濟變數歸納出有利率、匯率、失業率、領先指標、同時指標以及貨幣供給額。再就所篩選出的總體經濟相關變數為基礎,運用複迴歸模型、時間序列單根檢定與ARIMA轉換模型探討總體經濟相關變數對股價指數影響來探討總體經濟相關變數是否對自殺率有更直接的影響。經實證結果發現自殺率與失業率及貨幣供給額有顯著相關,失業率與自殺率為正相關二期影響,貨幣供給額與自殺率為正相關三期影響。實證結果期能裨益相關單位作為自殺防治與宣導參考時擬訂有利政策。
According to the WHO speculation report. In year 2020 the suicide is the 9th arrange the global 10 big causes of death .It is placed the 8th in developing countries. Suicide has been an important issue of Public Health among all countries. According to the records, the dangerous factor of suicide is widespread and diverse. Became of whole impact economy, Depression in the recent years. Our country is faced with economic problems. That causes people livelihood or public safety related problems . The variety on economic condition change with stock market have closed relationship so called:「The Stock Market Is The Displayed Window of Economic」. In the recent years Financial Tsunami happened occurred, there is sharp drop on Taiwan economic stock market. Lot of people was depressed due to the investment defeat. You can occasionally hear it cause melancholia and suicide. Therefore, we use research to choose the macroeconomic variables that affect stock index. The variables include unemployment rate、interest rate、exchange rate、leading index、coincident index and monetary aggregates. We use multiple regression、unit roots and ARIMA models to discuss the rate of suicide and overall economic related variable. Discuss the overall economic related variable. Whatever it has direct influence to suicide. The empirical results show that Suicide rate is conspicuously relative to Unemployment rate and monetary aggregates. Unemployment rate is positively relative to suicide rate after two terms; Monetary aggregates is positively relative to suicide rate after three terms. Free expected result can benefit coherent units when the suicide prevention and the guidance reference drafty the advantage policy.