財務比率分析應用於上市財務危機公司之研究

THE FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS APPLIED TO THE RESEARCH OF THE FINANCIAL DISTRESS FIRMS

陳力羣(Li-Chun Chen)

指導教授 ： 鍾彩焱

元智大學/管理學院/管理研究所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

本論文旨在探討如何利用相關財務比率資訊，衡量企業發生財務危機之異常警訊，使樣本資料數量化，並利用各項財務比率分析，使得較能正確地去解讀公司之財務報表，提醒公司經營階層注意存在之危機，使正派經營者可以及早採取因應措施，以降低公司之營運風險與成本，而以台灣證券交易所2008年3月18日證交所財務重點專區公告，依據八大準則列出財務問題上市公司為基礎，蒐集18家財務危機公司，另採用人為配對與危機公司規模相近之正常公司，選取同產業18家公司為對照樣本，為探討發生財務危機公司之特性，選取了銷售利潤率等20個財務比率為衡量變數，據以衡量正常公司與財務危機公司之表現差異。由研究結果可知財務危機企業與正常企業在多項財務指標上呈現顯著的差異特性，以整體研究期間2005至2007年而言，最具有區別能力的變數為資產報酬率、財務槓桿比率、權益報酬率、及財務槓桿效果等四項財務比率。

關鍵字

財務危機 ； 財務比率分析

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to examine if financial statements provide information in predicting financial distress and which ratio can best provide early warning signals. Such prediction is important because financial statement analysis can be performed without complex calculations. If financial distressed firms can be distinguished from healthy firms, these firms can enjoy lower cost of capital.
A sample of 18 mildly financial distressed firms was selected based on Taiwan’s SEC classification scheme. Control firms were pair-matched with the sample firms based on industry membership and size. The results show that over 2005-2007 sample period, many ratios have discriminating power as early as three years prior to being classified as financial distress firms. The return on assets, financial leverage, return on equity, and effect of financial leverage are most powerful ratios in detecting future financial distress.

並列關鍵字

financial distress ； financial statement analysis

參考文獻

13. Gardner, M. J. (1984), “Minority Owned Banks: A Managerial and Performance Analysis” , Journal of Bank Research, pp. 26-34.

1. Beaver,W.H.(1966), “Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure,” Journal of Accounting, p.77-111.

2. Deakin, E. B. (1972),“A Discriminate Analysis of Predictors of BusinessFailure”, Journal of Accounting Research, 10(1), pp.167-179.

3. Laitinen. E. K & T. Laitinen,（1998）”Cash Management Behavior AndFailure Prediction “ Journal of Business Finance & Accounting , pp.613-630.

4. Booth, P.J. (1983) ,”Decomposition Measures and the Prediction of Financial