逆事實思考預防功能之研究：由記憶狀態與心靈污染觀點探討之

The Research of The Preventive Function of Counterfactual Thinking by Memory state and Mental Contamination

黃玉凰(Yu-Huang Huang)

指導教授 ： 廖淑伶 ； 沈永正

元智大學/管理學院/管理研究所/博士(2007年)

摘要

許多時候，消費者在決策過程中，會去想像另一種不同於過去已發生結果的情況，這時消費者便涉及所謂「逆事實思考」的消費者行為。茲以「如果我當時買的是福特而非克萊斯勒的話，我就不用花那麼多錢」為例，逆事實思考的過程通常是以諸如「要是當初我不這麼做；而是那麼做，會怎樣」的條件陳述語句作為呈現，因此包括某一前因與後果。而自Roese(1997)將『逆事實』的觀念帶入決策過程中，並將之定義為過去已發生結果的替代版本後，相關研究便陸續出現。

其中，許多關於逆事實思考的研究皆指出向上逆事實思考可作為消費者未來制定決策時的參考借鏡，而由現實生活中我們亦發現此議題與我們生活的密切性及其在消費者行為研究上的重要性。然而，相關實證性研究資料卻極盡缺乏。故本研究首先探究由向上逆事實思考觸發、消費者再購時的預防機轉效果。另外，本研究亦發現對心靈認知缺陷的理解是洞悉消費者心理與行為的關鍵之一，因此，我們引用Wilson and Brekke(1994)提出之心靈污染(Mental Contamination)的概念作為本研究思維辨證與推論的依據。
本研究共發展出三個研究模型。模型一中，本研究先探討向上逆事實思考預防功能之效果以及記憶狀態與情境狀況對於向上逆事實思考所引發的預防意圖效果之影響。接著，鑒於不同記憶狀態下，所引發或產生的心靈污染變數不盡相同，故本研究再依記憶狀態的不同，先在模型二中探究記憶清晰狀態下，所產生的心靈污染變數及其對預防意圖效果的影響；最後再於模型三中討論記憶模糊狀態下所產生的心靈污染變數及其對預防意圖效果的影響。

本研究藉由虛擬故事法設計問卷，分別對不同記憶狀態下可能的心靈污染變數進行具體化地操弄，再運用SPSS與SAS統計軟體分析，以實證方式進行研究驗證並得到如後的結論：(1)向上逆事實思考所引發之預防意圖的確會影響消費者對品牌選擇的機率；(2)記憶狀態對預防意圖在舊品牌再購機率上的作用的確會產生干擾效果；(3)資訊類型對預防意圖在品牌選擇機率作用的干擾效果不顯著；(4)在記憶狀態清晰下，各心靈污染變數對預防意圖在舊品牌再購機率上的作用的確會產生干擾效果；(5)在記憶狀態模糊下，各心靈污染變數對預防意圖在品牌選擇機率作用的干擾效果不顯著；(6)當記憶清晰時，心靈污染變數將更容易對預防意圖作用產生干擾效果；(7)舊品牌與新品牌間的選擇機率為獨立非完全相關。最後，本研究更據此討論管理義涵並發展行銷實務之建議。

關鍵字

逆事實思考；心靈污染；記憶狀態；預防意圖；再購意願

並列摘要

Oftentimes, consumers imagine the particular situation which is very opposite of what had happened before. The consumer is, at this moment, involved in the process of so-called “counterfactual thinking”. People usually use the expression such as “if I had not done this, I would have…” to demonstrate the process of counterfactual thinking. For example, the individual may use the sentence, such as “If I had not bought Chrysler but Ford instead, I would not have spent so much money”, to describe the causes and effects of his or her regrets. In 1997, Roese (1997) started to apply this concept to the field of decision-making. From then on, related studies have been coming out successively.

Some researches about the concept of counterfactual thinking have pointed out that the upward counterfactual thinking could lead consumers to a better decision. Although the concept is closely related to our daily life and its importance is also obvious in the field of consumer behavior, related studies are short on empirical orientation. Therefore, this research explores, in the beginning, consumers’ preventing effects caused by upward counterfactual thinking while they are considering buying the similar product again. This research supports the idea that the understanding of mental cognition is one of the keys to detect consumers’ behaviors, so we use the concept of Mental Contamination coined by Wilson and Brekke (1994) as a theoretical framework in this research.

Three research models have been developed in this research. In model one, the prevent effects of upward counterfactual thinking and the interference effects of memory and situation states have been discussed. Because different memory states may result in different variables in terms of mental contamination, the researcher explores, in model two, consumers’ mental contamination variables when they are in the state of clear memory. The influences of the variables on the prevent effects are also demonstrated in this model. The researcher finally discusses the influences of mental contamination variables on the prevent effects when consumers’ memory is not clear.

The researcher develops questionnaires with scenario and manipulates the mental contamination variables under different memory states separately. The statistic softwares such as SPSS and SAS have been employed to analyze the empirical data. The conclusions of this research are as follows: 1. the effects of preventing intention derived from upward counterfactual thinking will influence the probability of consumers’ choice of brand. 2. consumers’ memory states will interfere in the preventing intention referring to the probability of the choice of the old brand. 3. the interference effects of information types on the preventing intention referring to the probability of brand choice are not significant. 4. each mental contamination variable will interfere in the preventing intention referring to the probability of the choice of the old brand when the consumer is in the state of clear memory. 5. the interference effects of each mental contamination variable on the preventing intention referring to the probability of brand choice are not significant when the consumer’s memory is not clear. 6. the mental contamination variable will easily interfere in the preventing intention when the consumer’s memory is clear. 7. the probabilities between the choice of the old brand and that of the new brand are independent and have imperfect correlation. Based on the conclusions such as the above, the researcher discusses, in the final part of this research, related managerial insights and gives suggestions on marketing practice.

並列關鍵字

counterfactual thinking ； mental contamination ； memory states ； preventing intention ； repurchase intention

參考文獻

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