專案融資成功機率影響因素多重相關性之研究

A Study of the Influence of Multiple Factors for Successful Project Finance

李俊毅(Chun-Yi Li)

指導教授 ： 任恒毅

元智大學/工程學院/工業工程與管理學系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

台灣高鐵與高雄捷運是民間參與公共建設之BOT模式，是屬於專案融資案例，由於興建過程中，因為資金無法到位、工程逾期完工等種種問題；營運後收入不如預期，造成嚴重虧損，使得聯貸銀行也承受鉅額之損失。
由於專案融資計畫的執行期間甚長，所牽扯到的風險程度較高且複雜，再加上專案融資是以營運後的現金流量當作是還款之依據，使得融資者處於觀望中，不敢貿然的答應。除非該專案融資計畫的可行性極高或者是有政府作為後盾等因素，否則同意借款的機率也大幅降低。因此完善之財務規劃與評估完整風險分析與管理是專案融資重大研究課題。
根據專案融資可行性財務指標判斷專案融資成功之可能性，可藉由考慮多項(兩項以上)參數之相關性，搭配常態分配手法，於特定股東出資比、政府投資比等條件下進行蒙地卡羅模擬法建立個案專案融資計畫之成功機率矩陣。從成功機率矩陣可得知於何種出資比例下，專案融資成功機率大，所需承受風險程度低。主要目的是想同時考慮投資者、融資者、政府三方的情況下而達成融資成功的可能性，期盼能創造三贏的結果。

關鍵字

BOT、多重敏感度分析、專案融資、蒙地卡羅模擬

並列摘要

Due to budget limitations, many infrastructure projects in Taiwan nowadays use private-sector funds from banks and private investors to finance them. In the construction period, many projects encountered cost overrun, time delay, funding misplace problems. As the major financing participants, banks face high potentials of huge financial loss because of these problems. In addition, the repayment is largely based on predicted cash flow after project’s operation. It not only incurs high degree of risk, but the project complexity makes financial decision tougher to be made. In order to reduce the risk, either the feasibility of the project finance plan is carefully studied or with the guarantee of government, should financial institutions agree to finance the borrower. This study intends to provide an effective tool in assisting the estimate of successful probability of arranged project finance. The correlated structure of some key economic index are studied, analyzed and used to simulate various project financial scenarios among shareholders, government and financial institutions. A study case of Taiwan High Speed Rail Project is used to estimates project finance success probability.

並列關鍵字

Project finance, BOT, Multiple Sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation

參考文獻

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