ECFA簽訂後對於臺灣機械業及紡織業生產力之影響

The Productivity Changes of Taiwan's Machinery and Textile Industry after ECFA

黃柏偉(Po-Wei Huang)

指導教授 ： 陳志成

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊社會學碩士學位學程/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6838/YZU.2012.00180

摘要

在2009年經濟部委託中華經濟研究院進行兩岸經濟開放的評估後，認為兩岸的貿易合作有利於臺灣製造業之發展。於是在經濟部擬定配套措施後，臺灣與中國大陸於2010年6月29日簽署《經濟合作架構協議》 (ECFA) ，並於2010年09月12日正式生效。合約中以早期收穫條款的方式分階段讓雙方商品進入彼此的市場，而ECFA的第一波早收清單已於2011年1月1日生效，所開放的產品內容主要為機械和紡織類之產品。另一方面，在全球許多國家（如智利、巴西、哥倫比亞）對於貿易政策的研究中，皆發現市場的開放將會導致產業的生產力提升。

　　有鑑於此，不同於中華經濟研究院（2009）針對產業「生產金額」的變動預測，本研究以「生產力」的角度探討臺灣產業在兩岸貿易開放後的變化。選定機械以及紡織產業之所有上市（櫃）公司進行生產力的衡量，並依據廠商產品是否列入第一波ECFA早收清單為依據分成實驗組與對照組，除了比較兩組的生產力表現，也探討受早收清單影響的廠商群在ECFA生效後，生產力的表現是否較ECFA生效前優良。並使用了Farrell (1957) 所開創的資料包絡分析法 (DEA) 中，由Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W., & Rhodes, E. (1978) 所改良的CCR模式與Banker, R. D., Charnes, A., & Cooper, W. W. (1984) 所提的BCC模式計算靜態與動態的效率值，並以Fare, R., Grosskopf, S., Norris, M., & Zhang, Z. (1994) 所定義的Malmquist生產力指數衡量臺灣機械業以及紡織業在2008年至2011年生產力的變動情形，同時將「生產力」拆解為「技術效率」與「技術改變」兩個構面作探討，並更進一步檢視「技術效率」中，「純技術效率」與「規模效率」的變化情形。

　　本研究之分析結果指出，ECFA第一波早收清單所涵蓋的機械業以及紡織業廠商群，在「技術效率」上的表現皆比同產業中沒有受ECFA影響的群體優異，但「技術改變」上則是沒有明顯的差距；此外，紡織業中受ECFA影響的廠商在早收清單生效後，也可以看出「生產力」的提升略為優於同業未受影響的廠商群。但兩產業之技術改變幅度皆不大，因此縱使技術效率有所提升，生產力提升的效果仍不甚明顯。本研究之結果說明兩岸貿易自由化確實有助於產業生產力的提升，而技術效率的變動可在短期之資料型態被觀察出差異性。待ECFA合作的時間越長、影響層面擴大時，在後續的追蹤期望可以檢視出臺灣製造業在技術上的變革。

關鍵字

ECFA ； 機械業 ； 紡織業 ； 生產力 ； 資料包絡分析法 (DEA)

並列摘要

The "Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA) between Taiwan and China has been signed on June 29, 2010, and came into force on September 12, 2010. Tariff was reduced in order to open up both Taiwan and China’s market in stages by the early harvest provisions. The first stage of the ECFA early harvest list was enforced on January 1, 2011, and it mainly contained such items as machinery products and textile products, etc. Most of the items on the list have been predicted increases in the amount of industry manufacturing production after the signing of ECFA in the GATP model forecasted by the Chun-Hua Institution for Economic Research (2009). On the other hand, empirical studies in many countries (eg. India, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia) showed out that the elimination of national trade barriers will cause both side to enhance productivity.

　　Different from the Chun-Hua Institute for Economic Research (2009) forecast for industrial production amount, this study takes the "productivity" point of view to analyse the effect of Taiwan's industries after the signing of ECFA. Selecting the most affected industries (machinery industry and the textile industry), and using the financial data released by the listed (OTC) companies, this study measured the change of industry productivity. Furthermore, this study adopted the data envelopment analysis (DEA) proposed by Farrell (1957), CCR model modified by Charnes et al (1978), and BCC model improved by Banker, et al. (1984) to calculate the static and dynamic efficiency value of firms, and adopted the Malmquist productivity index defined by Fare et al. (1994) to measure the changes of productivity in Taiwan's machinery industry and the textile industry in 2008-2011. This study dismantles productivity into two dimensions – discussing technical efficiency and technology change, and further analyses the variations of the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency below the technical efficiency. The goal was not only to verify the international trade theory once again, but also to use another point of view to explore the impact on Taiwan’s industries by the signature of ECFA.

　　The results of this study confirmed that firms in both industries, whose products were contained in the ECFA first stage early harvest list do have better performance on technical efficiency than others; but the change in technology is not obvious. Moreover, the productivity performance of the firms that were affected by the ECFA is slightly better than others in the textile industry. The technology changes in both the machinery and the textile industry are not significant. Thus, although there exists a clear enhancement in technical efficiency, the enhancement of productivity still doesn’t reach the significant level. The results of this study show that the trade liberalization between Taiwan and China does contribute to the upgrading of industrial productivity, especially in the enhancement of technical efficiency, which can be observed easily in the short-term data. Finally, once a longer time has passed, more effective technology change in both machinery and textile industries is expected.

並列關鍵字

data envelopment analysis (DEA) ； ECFA ； machinery ； textiles ； productivity

參考文獻

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Banker, R. D., Charnes, A., & Cooper, W. W. (1984) . Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis. Management Science, 30 (9) , pp.1078-1092.

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