網路媒介與社會運動：以阿拉伯之春為例

The role of ICT-mediated protests and its effects on diffusion in the Arab Spring

莫提芬(Molocea Stefan-Marian)

指導教授 ： 曾淑芬

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊社會學碩士學位學程/碩士(2012年)

摘要

2010年12月開始，阿拉伯的春天已經影響了北非和阿拉伯世界裡多個國家,目前為止已造成了四個國家政權的推翻。然而，較早的實例可以回溯到摩爾多瓦和伊朗在2009年大選之後所引起的｢推特革命｣。這顯示了一個事實，也就是社群媒體與網站可以從娛樂性工具變成政治性工具和社會價值，亦或是成為在世界各地的示威者與推動者。在科技技術典範轉變的現代使得抗議活動出現了多種不同的方式，但本文的討論範圍認為在資通訊技術的發展下可能導致更多的抗議活動。更明確的說，本文將討論在現今世界各地的資訊社會背景下，社群網站在吸引新的使用者加入抗議活動上是否有所幫助或造成重創，以及它是如何引發的抗議活動。
本文的核心問題圍繞在「擴散」以及重點是如何利用資通訊技術在擴散數量上造成影響，而在人口特徵和變動的結果上影響使用資通訊技術的又是什麼。在試圖回答這些問題時將會利用次級資料與較以前的第一手資料。本研究分析的案件，主要是阿拉伯聯盟中最近發生抗議浪潮的國家，同時也包含摩爾多瓦所提供的相關數據。在本研究中，大多數的數據、報表和其他形式的數據是使用2009年到2011年之間的資料。本文結果顯示，國家的資通訊技術的發展水平與抗議擴散之間沒有任何有效的關聯性。在個人層次上，我們發現主要數據顯示，更高層次的新社群媒體的使用並不能確定抗議擴散會有比較高程度的展現。因此，社群網站的使用似乎只是增加革命消息的推動，而不是成為抗議的一種方式

關鍵字

擴散 ； 抗議 ； 阿拉伯世界 ； 新社群媒體 ； 科技技術 ； 資通訊技術

並列摘要

Started in December 2010, the Arab Spring has impacted multiple countries in northern Africa and the Arab world and so far caused the fall of the government in four countries. However, earlier instances, such as the “Twitter Revolutions” that followed the 2009 general elections in Moldova and Iran, showed the fact that in the right hands, social media and social networking sites can go from being a tool for entertainment to a tool of political and social value and an enabler of protesters around the world.
The technological shift in paradigm happening today impacts protests in different ways, but the scope of this paper will be to consider ICT development can lead to more protests. More clearly put, the paper will discuss whether social networking sites can help or damage attracting new crowds and how it can trigger protests, in the context of the information society present today throughout the world.
The central questions of this paper revolve around diffusion and are focusing on how the use of ICT is influencing diffusion in numbers, in demographic characteristics and what are the effects of ICT use over the results of the movements. In attempting to answer these questions, several sets of secondary data will be used, but also a previous set of first hand data. The analysis cases that are subject to this research mainly consist of the Arab League nations, where the majority of the recent wave of protest happened, while also looking at Moldova and Iran, where data is available and relevant. Most of the datasets, reports and other forms of data that will be used in this research have a timeline between 2009 and 2011
Results of this paper show that ICT development levels at a national scale do not have any kind of effect on the diffusion of protest. At an individual level, we found using our primary data that a greater level of use for new social media does not determine a higher diffusion of protests among our subjects. Thus, the use of social networks seems to be a way of propelling the message of the revolution, not the protest itself.

並列關鍵字

new social media ； ICT ； technology ； diffusion ； protests ； Arab World

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