運用案例式推理於委外加工費用預測系統建構之研究 – 以DRAM產業為例

Research on the Construction of a Case-Based Reasoning System for Outsourcing Expenses Forecasting - The case of DRAM Industry

夏至緯(Chih-Wei Hsia)

指導教授 ： 蔡啟揚

元智大學/工程學院/工業工程與管理學系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

台灣多年來由於科技產業的發達，在半導體產業上建構了完整的產業供應鏈，其中DRAM產業的IC封裝與測試加工業務主要依賴委外代工的方式進行。根據經驗，部分的DRAM產品委外加工成本約占了製造費用的一至四成不等，因此探討費用的議題更凸顯其重要性。過去在委外代工費用議價過程因缺乏理論依據因此無法提出合理費用決策腳本，為有效降低委外代工成本進而提升競爭力，本研究以案例式推理系統搜尋最相似案例的特性來建構預測系統。本研究第一步以歷史案例建立預測系統，第二步再依據因子屬性劃分群組，建立分群模式後，以MAPE值驗證各預測模式預測之績效。研究結果得知，案例式推理可建立精確的預測系統；而單因子屬性分群後進行預測可得到較低的誤差值，故透過分群模式可提供專案人員在DRAM封裝測試委外加工議價的評估上有效的預測參考。

關鍵字

DRAM ； 案例式推理

並列摘要

High-tech industries are being developed in Taiwan over the years, and a supply chain has been well constructed in semi-conductor industry. In DRAM industry, operations of IC packaging and testing are mainly outsourced. Based on practical experience, outsourcing expense is approximately ten percent to forty percent of DRAM products’ total costs. It shows the importance of outsourcing expense negotiation. In the past, it is difficult to provide a reasonable expense estimate for reference for negotiation due to the lack of theoretical basis, and thus unable to increase compatibility through effectively reducing outsourcing costs. This study applies Case-Based Reasoning method to construct a forecast system for outsourcing expense. The first step is to construct a database of historical cases of outsourcing expense negotiation. The second step is to classify cases in the database based on particular properties of products. Case-Based Reasoning method then can be applied to search for similar cases in the database and the actual outsourcing expense of those cases are used for the forecast for the new case. Experiment was conducted to examine the performance of the constructed forecast systems and MAPE is used to evaluate forecast accuracy. The results show that Case-Based Reasoning is able to forecast outsourcing expense with good accuracy. Furthermore, the performance is better when historical cases in the database are classified properly based on single product property. The constructed forecast system can provide good forecast of outsourcing expenses for IC packaging and testing in DRAM industry.

並列關鍵字

DRAM industry ； Case-Based Reasoning

參考文獻

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