本研究運用2009年台北市、台北縣、台中縣市及高雄縣市四個主要都會區「台灣住宅需求動向調查」資料,澄清台灣家戶購屋負擔能力與購屋利息補貼間之關係,且透過房價所得比(PIR)、貸款負擔率及購屋可負擔極限(AL)等住宅負擔能力指數,分析家戶購屋負擔狀況並探討購屋優惠利息補貼在不同所得階層分配情形及降低每月房貸支出效果。實證結果發現,在四個都會區家戶購屋負擔能力分析部分,房價所得比值皆超過國際標準比值,顯示家戶購屋負擔過重,受購屋門檻限制。而台北市已貸款購屋家戶其貸款負擔率數值均超過可接受範圍30%,每個月所得近一半得支付房屋貸款,房貸支出佔家戶所得比例過高,貸款壓力偏重頃向。 相較於房價所得比值與貸款負擔率,僅能粗略表示家戶購屋能力大小,運用購屋可負擔極值(AL)試算出家戶可負擔房價上限值,可估計出家戶合理負擔住宅價格。數據結果顯示台北市、台北縣家戶可負擔住宅價格均低於實際成交住宅價格及期望購屋價格,各分位數家戶僅可負擔比同分位數再低一分位階的住宅價格,台中縣市及高雄縣市兩大都會區情況則較為和緩些。另外,透過敏感度分析了解四都會區家戶購屋負擔變化,可知當貸款年利率攀升越高,對中低所得家戶每月房貸支出有相對影響。而家戶每月償還貸款佔月所得之比例需增加至50%時,家戶才能購置期望住宅。 再者,探討政府購置住宅優惠利率對於家戶每月房貸支出利息補貼部份,其補貼效果是有限的。補貼就所得而言,不管是低所得或是高所得者,補貼額度皆相同,呈現水平式公平現象,並不符合真正補貼公平原則。補貼應是以最需要者為優先並給予優厚補貼,而非只要符合資格者。從補貼額度佔每月所得比例來看,貸款利息補貼對於低所得購屋家戶補貼效果較為明顯,但其比例仍是甚低。如此情形顯示政府需因不同區域住宅價格及各階層家戶所得水準訂定不同補貼優惠條件。
This study discusses the household’s housing affordability and mortgage interest subsidy in four metropolitan areas by using data from Housing Demand Survey. The Price-to-Income Ratio, Mortgage Payment Rate and Affordable Limit approaches were employed to analyze the household’s affordability conditions and to discuss distributional effect of mortgage interest subsidy on the household’s mortgage payment among different income levels. The results show that the household’s PIRs in Taiwan’s four metropolitan areas are higher than those in most advanced countries indicating that the household’s have much less affordability in owner-occupation in Taiwan. Particularly, households in Taipei need to pay more than half of their incomes for mortgage payment. The use of Affordable Limit can optimally estimate the household’s affordable housing prices rather than PIR and MPR. The results also show that the household’s affordable housing prices are lower than their expected housing prices, especially in Taipei city and Taipei county. They can only afford housing prices in lower price quintiles. Regarding sensitive analysis, the results indicate that an increase in interest rate has more significant impact on middle and lower income households in their mortgage payment. If a household can afford their expected housing prices, its mortgage payment to income rate would be reach up to 50%. Furthermore, the results indicate that the subsidy effect is quite limit on lowering the household’s monthly payments. The amount of mortgage interest subsidies are the same to households in all income levels which presents horizontal equity of subsidy but it cannot catch the core of housing subsidy in terms of vertical equity of subsidy. With respect to subsidy to income ratio, the effect is significant on households in lower income levels, however the ratio is still too low. As a result, this study suggests that the government should have various subsidy requirements in related to different regions as well as different income levels.