建築物人員避難安全之動態模擬與風險評估

由於都市發展迅速，為了使土地能得到充分利用，國內出現了許多設備複雜的綜合大樓，在這些場所中，最大的特點就是人員多、密集、流動性大，一旦發生緊急情況，就可能造成大量的人員傷亡。造成傷亡的主要原因，大多是人員未能得知正確的逃生路線與避難設施不符需求，延遲逃生時間，而良好的避難路徑設計可縮短人員避難行動所需時間，盡快到達安全地點，因此，建築物的避難動線規劃與避難風險評估是相當重要的課題。火災對於個人與社會有很大的影響，一旦發生將會造成民眾生命財產的損失，為了減少火災發生時的傷亡程度，建築物避難安全乃成為重要的課題，因此，本研究首先驗證並檢討現行法令避難逃生設施規定，利用電腦動態模擬來了解建築物人員避難現象，規劃適當的逃生路徑與設置避難設施，並以可靠度分析法對於避難逃生失敗機率進行計算，求其風險值。最後以電腦動態模擬結果與可靠度分析結果進行比較，探討電腦動態模擬與數值模擬的差異。本研究利用避難模擬程式Simulex，對人員逃生路線與避難設施寬度規定進行動態避難模擬，尋找安全疏散的最佳路徑，以及避難設施的最適寬度。而為了探討與比較避難驗證評估系統的可靠性，以蒙地卡羅模擬法與一階二次矩法計算可靠度的方式，直接針對避難逃生主要的功能函數，進行避難疏散失敗之風險評估，並利用敏感性分析了解各種不確定因素對於避難模擬結果之影響，最後與避難模擬軟體Simulex的動態結果比較，作為建築物避難風險管理之參考。

關鍵字

動線規劃；風險評估；蒙地卡羅模擬；一階二次矩法

並列摘要

In this rapid urban development time, to make the most of the land, there are many complex multi-story buildings with high density people inside. Once in emergency, there will be heavy casualties. The main reason is that people inside the buildings do not know the right evacuation routes besides insufficient evacuation facilities. A well designed evacuation route can shorten evacuation time and help people reach safety place as soon as possible. Thus, the planning of evacuation routes in building and evacuation risk assessment are very important topics to study. Fire disaster has great influence on individual and sociality since it causes life and property damages. To reduce the level of casualty, it is a must to study building evacuation safety. Therefore, the existing code about evacuation facilities was first investigated. The computer dynamic simulation was used to examine evacuation phenomena, to configure proper evacuation routes and to install evacuation facilities. The reliability analysis was employed to evaluate evacuation risk and the failure probability of evacuation was calculated. The results and corresponding performance of the above methods were compared. The dynamic simulation software – Simulex was used to find optimum paths and widths for different evacuation routes and corridor widths. Monte Carlo simulation and first order second moment method were used in reliability analysis. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty and variability. Finally, the results were compared with those obtained from dynamic simulation and might be as references for risk assessment of evacuation safety of building.

並列關鍵字

route planning ； risk assessment ； Simulex ； Monte Carlo simulation ； first order second moment method

參考文獻

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