探討國軍零附件存量基準精確性及研擬最適方案─以空軍某部隊後勤運作為例

空軍後勤補給支援運作，在零附件需求預測作業上，現階段仍存在著待料不足或超多滯庫情況，影響國軍武器系統裝備妥善，進而造成資產分配不良、預算浪費及及成本積壓。本研究選擇20項不同零組件，並蒐整每項軍品近二年內產生故障失效間隔時間、基地場站與專業廠級維修回運繳庫時間等數據資料，以SPSS統計軟體計算平均值、標準差、變異數，並採用獨立樣本K-S適合度檢定機率分配；另依空軍目前存貨管理作業方式，蒐整相關參數因子，採用等候網路理論以模擬方法實施驗證與結果比對，期能配合空軍實際運作找出較完善之需求預測作業模式與機制，以建立最適當及最合理之備份件數量。本研究期能獲得下列成果：增進需求預測之精確性、強化軍機維修與備料作業機制、消弭庫儲管理負荷與降低成本，提昇軍品支援效率及武器裝備妥善率；另同時建議後續可持續研究需求預測所可能產生之物料短缺及滯庫成本，研究方向包含整合上下游廠商資源分享之策略性運用研究、軍事後勤與廠商間顧客關係管理機制之研究、存貨成本對軍機妥善率維持之影響研究、軍機商維及軍工廠國有民營化後存貨管理作業模式之研究。

關鍵字

物流；需求預測

並列摘要

In view of the fact that the current Republic of China Air Force material requirement forecast still does not solve the problems of logistics supply support system which cause the shortage or dead stock. The study selects twenty different spare parts, Then input the collected data files to the SPSS statistical software to calculate the values of Mean, Standard Deviation and Variables. These figures will then using the K-S Rightness of Independent Sample to verify the probability distribution data. The study intends to through the dynamic simulating to enable the requirement forecast to meet the requirement of the operation in order to stock the reasonable spares and support operational units actively and reach for the following achievements: 1. To increase the accuracy of the requirement prediction. 2. To enhance the precision of repair and stock calculation 3. To reduce the cost of stock management and shortened support time. 4. To increase the operational readiness of equipment. Also, it is expected that follow-up researchers can focus on invisible costs of shortage and overstay resulted from requirement prediction. The topics of research can include verification research of integrating user and supplier’s strategic information application, risk analysis of inventory cost vs. operational readiness, inventory control and customer management mechanism between military and contractors after the performance of the Military Outsourcing and GOCO （Government Owned Contractor Operated） program.