本文章研究臺灣最大的出口航線,臺灣至香港航線,分別以臺灣自香港運量進口,與臺灣出口至香港運量加以討論,首先利用時間數列分析中Dickey-Fuller的單根檢定,檢定臺灣進出口香港的海運運量是否呈現定態,在定態的情形下則繼續使用時間數列分析,最後得出進口模式最佳模式為ARIMA(1, 0, 1),出口最佳模式為模式ARIMA(1, 1, 1),表示臺灣自香港進口的海運運量當中,目前的運量與過去一期的運量有關,也和過去一期的隨機項有關係,在臺灣出口香港海運運量當中,表示必須經過一次差分後,才能進行時間數列分析,目前的運量與過去一期的運量有關,也和過去一期的隨機項有關係,並假設兩岸發展的情況下,臺灣自香港進口航線,及臺灣出口至香港航線,由於兩岸航運成本降低的關係,初期臺灣香港運量不會有太大改變,經過假設情境兩岸三通或直航,臺灣自香港進口航線,直航後三年分別會衰退12.4%、20.6%、23.8%,臺灣出口至香港航線,2009、2010、2011會衰退11.1%、18.3%、21%。
Our study research the most export liner of Taiwan, Taiwan to Hong Kong line service. Than discuss about Taiwan import form Hong Kong liner and Taiwan export to Hong Kong liner. First, we will use Dickey-Fuller unit root test of Time Series Analysis. Examining Taiwan import or export Hong Kong ocean freight become a stationary state. If the result were stationary, we still use Time Series Analysis. Finally we got the best model, import from Hong Kong will be ARIMA(1, 0, 1), export to Hong Kong will be ARIMA(1, 1, 1). It represent Taiwan import from Hong Kong ocean freight is relate to former ocean freight and also relate to former random term. We find out Taiwan export to Hong Kong ocean freight is relate to former ocean freight and also relate to former random term. Second we suppose that direct shipping across the Taiwan and Mainland. Because of shipping cost become lower, it doesn’t become so much at first. But we suppose direct shipping happening between Taiwan and Mainland China, we can find out Taiwan import from Hong Kong will decrease 12.4%、20.6%、23.8%. Taiwan export to Hong Kong will decrease 11.1%、18.3%、21%.