台灣航線併購與存續之研究：Cox比例危險模式之應用

A study on merger & acquisition and duration in Taiwan airline markets: Application cox proportional hazard model

陳怡君(Yi-Chun Chen)

指導教授 ： 丁崇德

長榮大學/管理學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

國內航空運輸需求量於1997年達最高峰，但在1998年以後，國內航空市場景氣逐漸下滑，高成本的運輸客機成為航空業者的沈重負擔，尤其在近年來台灣地區大量推動公路建設和高鐵的啟用，以及全球經濟不景氣的壓力下，對國內航空產業在營運管理上無疑是一大考驗。本研究探討1996年到2007年間曾經營國內航線之國內各航空公司，選取飛行班次、可售座位數、載客人數、載客率、商務航線與休閒航線、高鐵重複的航線起迄地點、航線之併購與平均每人國內生產毛額等變數，探討國內航線之營運，利用存活分析試圖找出在不同時間點上影響航空產業營運績效之重要因素，以供國內航空業管理者改善缺失與未來營運方針之重要參考方向。
研究結果發現，提供座位數、商務航線(北-高航線)、併購之航線、高鐵重複的航線起迄地點為影響國內航空業營運績效之因素，且發現併購會使航線危險率下降，以經營策略型態來看，結果顯示併購後商務型態之航線存活率大於併購後休閒型態之航線存活率，併購後休閒型態之航線存活率大於未經併購的商務型態之航線存活率，而未經併購的商務型態之航線存活率大於未經併購的休閒型態之航線存活率。

關鍵字

國內航線 ； 存活分析 ； Cox比例危險模式

並列摘要

In 1997, the domestic aviation transportation required volume reached its peak. However, after 1998, the prosperity of domestic aviation slide down all the way and transportation passenger plane with high cost became a heavy burden for aviation companies. In addition, Taiwan promote road construction and high speed railway in recent years and with the pressure of global recession, without doubt it is a great test for domestic aviation industry in terms of operation management.The research investigates the Domestic Airlines who have been manage the domestic route from 1996 to 2007.The research seeks to find out the key factors affecting the operation performance of airline companies by utilizing the Survival Analysis to examine the variables combination of the Frequency of Flight, Available Seat, Passengers Carried, Passenger Load Factor, Commercial course and Recreation course, the repeated course place of the high speed railway and domestic airlines and the course merges the performance of managing, per capita GDP. The result provides an important reference and basis for airline executives to improve deficiency and serves as a future operation direction.
The result of study is found that available Seat, Commercial course, Course after merging, the repeated course place of the high speed railway and domestic airlines for influence domestic aviation industry factor, and find that merging will make the dangerous rate of course drop, look by managing the wise attitude, the result shows the course survival rate: Commercial attitude after merging is greater than Recreation type attitude after merging, Recreation type attitude after merging is greater than Commercial attitude not merged,Commercial attitude not merged is greater than Recreation type attitude not merged.

並列關鍵字

domestic airlines ； survival analysis ； cox proportional hazard model

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