個體式模擬在協商策略的選擇對鄰避性設施設置影響之研究

隨著經濟社會的進步與對於生活品質的要求，民眾對於附近具有危險性的污染性設施或會減損當地名聲的土地利用越加排斥。然而，公共設施種類繁多，其中部份公共設施為現代生活所必需，但卻是居民所不願與之為鄰，稱之為鄰避（NIMBYNot-In-My-Back-Yard）設施。而鄰避性設施設置之協商一直都是公共議題上最棘手之問題。本研究以電腦模擬之方式取代實地實驗所耗費之大量時間與人力，並比較電腦模擬與實地實驗在協商策略的選擇對鄰避性設施設置影響的結果。以多主體系統作為建立模型之系統，並以賽局理論中囚犯困境理論作為研究基礎，建立協商策略模型，進行三種情境下有限次數重複賽局與無限次數重複賽局實驗，並利用變異數分析，驗證其實驗結果。本研究之結果顯示，協商策略模型之實驗結果，對於取代實地實驗是有不錯之適用性，電腦模擬之優點在於不需耗費人力時間，不需考量場地限制、人數多寡，也不需考慮心理因素之問題，將所需之規則輸入於模型中，由模型計算出實驗結果，判斷面臨不同情境下所選擇之最適策略。

關鍵字

鄰避性設施；賽局理論；多主體系統；實驗設計

並列摘要

In this research, a computer model to simulate the effect of negotiation strategies on implementing not-in-my-back-yard facility was constructed. The different strategies in responding to different scenarios applied by the public and private sectors were encoded in the agent-based model. Under the sum of the public and private sectors’ payoffs as the net social benefit, fixed number and infinitely repeated games were executed. The results of computer simulation and field experiment are almost the same. However, the initial probabilities of cooperation for private sectors and trigger punishment strategy have to be given in computer model and small variations of the initial condition produce large variations in the long term behavior of the model. The sensitive dependence on initial conditions—the hallmark of chaotic behavior was discussed.

並列關鍵字

NIMBY facilities ； game theory ； multi-agent system ； experimental design

參考文獻

10. 邱敬斌(2007)。鄰避性設施設置協商策略比較之實驗研究。台灣土地研究，第十卷，第一期，pp. 1-22。

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國際替代計量

個體式模擬在協商策略的選擇對鄰避性設施設置影響之研究

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