技術預測方法之探討：以手機用中小尺寸平面顯示器技術為例

The Study of Technology Forecasting: Using Small to Medium Mobile Phone Displays as an Example

黃俊銘(Chun-Ming Huang)

指導教授 ： 林博文

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/高階主管經營管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2006年)

摘要

邁向e世代，企業沒有選擇的必須由區域性之競爭角色走向國際化及全球化之劇烈競爭角色。此外產業之結構更面臨了快速之演變之中，因此企業之經營更加困難。然而在此一快速變化之e世代，唯一不變的事就是事事在變。如何利用有效之方法掌握資訊預測將來，使企業能因應變化及了解將來需求，因而能有效制定策略，使在變化中穩定成長乃企業永續經營之道。
手機用中小尺寸平面顯示器產業在全世界，尤其是台日韓皆是其重點產業，其技術之變化更是日新月異。台灣廠商製造能力強，然而技術卻往往是跟隨者，因此往往是製造Low Margin之產品。本研究以手機用中小尺寸平面顯示器技術為例去探討技術預測，主要以MRI技術預測手法，結合監控法、專家訪問法、問卷調查法等技術預測手法，去預測3~5年手機用中小尺寸平面顯示器技術之趨勢並結合MPP之手法藉由Logistic Curve 對於手機用中小尺寸平面顯示器市場做分析，並經由市場大小之預估，以了解各手機應用產品之市場需求量，以為公司投資目標產品之參考。
本研究分析結果顯示中小尺吋平面顯示器將來會以TFT技術領域為主流，以滿足高階手機Multimedia High 及 Smart Phone 之需求。而新興市場將以中低階手機搭配CSTN為主體以低價為市場之驅動力。技術預測之目的不是在追求一非常精準的事實，其是希望藉著了解未來可能發展之方向，以便企業能及早佈局因應對策以跳脫紅海，找出自己之藍海。

關鍵字

MRI ； TFT ； CSTN ； 技術預測 ； 顯示器 ； 手機 ； MPP ； Logistic Curve

並列摘要

In today’s e-age, companies have no choice but to move from being a local competitor to an aggressive competitor on global playing fields. Companies are finding it increasing difficult to operate their businesses due to the rapid change occurring in industry structures. In the fast changing e-age, uncertainty has proven to be the only certainty. Using effective methods to manage information and predict the future gives companies the ability to respond to change and understand future demand which in turn enables them to devise effective strategies to achieve steady growth and build a sustainable business.
The small and medium mobile phone display industry is an important worldwide industry especially in Taiwan, Korea and Japan. It is an industry characterized by its constantly changing technology. Despite their manufacturing skill, Taiwanese companies often end up making low margin products because the technology lags behind their rivals. This paper discusses technology forecasting using small to medium mobile phone technology as an example. Technology forecasting methods such as MRI technology forecasting, combined monitoring, expert interviews and questionnaire methods are used to forecast technology trends for small and medium mobile phone displays three to five years in the future. After combining MPP methods to analyze small and medium mobile phone display markets using a logistic curve and estimating the size of the market, market demand for each mobile phone application product can be determined and used for a reference when companies are investing in target products.
This paper’s analysis results showed that TFT will become the leading technology for small and medium displays in order to satisfy multimedia high and smart phone demands. CSTN will be the main technology used for low and medium price range mobile phones in emerging markets because low price is the driving force in these markets. The goal of technology forecasting is not obtaining extremely accurate results but understanding possible future development directions so companies can respond earlier to changes, escape red ocean and seek out their own blue ocean.

並列關鍵字

MRI ； TFT ； CSTN ； Technology Forecasting ； Display ； Mobile phone ； MPP ； Logistic Curve