勞退新制對家計單位消費儲蓄決策影響-以隨機動態模型分析

The Influence of Labor Pension Act on Consumption and Savings–An Application of Stochastic Dynamic Model

蔡佳燕

指導教授 ： 莊慧玲

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2006年)

摘要

勞工退休金新制於94年7月正式上路，新制推行對於家計單位影響及在新制下所得替代率高低為大家所關切，此外新制亦提出稅負優惠政策，其是否會補貼在勞動市場中較優勢的勞工，使得所得差距拉大亦為大家所關心的議題，然而台灣現有文獻並未針對這些問題分析且建立理論模型，故本研究的目的即建立一個可分析台灣新舊退休金制度轉換對家計單位消費儲蓄決策影響及了解不同退休金制度下家計單位可領退休金為何的模型。
本研究引用Imrohoroglu, Imrohoroglu, and Joines(1998)模型及其所提出之馬可夫鏈概念，建立台灣勞工退休金新舊制之模型，並利用value function iteration 模擬方法及Matlab撰寫程式進行模擬。
透過模擬結果可發現新制推行可提高家計單位終身效用現值且若僅針對企業提撥部份來看家計單位獲得企業提撥退休金折現值提高，提高老年所得來源加強勞年經濟安全，但新制下擴大男女性家計單位因在就業市場處境優劣所造成所得差距，且因稅賦優惠針對退休帳戶及自行提撥部份進行補貼，更加擴大此差距，稅賦優惠的合理性備受爭議。

關鍵字

勞退新制 ； 馬可夫鏈

並列摘要

Labor Pension Act has been enforced in July 2005. There are three significant issues ralated to the enforcement of the act. The first is the impact of the policy on households. Second, how much pension we can receive? Finally, whether the Tax Incentives policy will provide more subsidies to the superior labors than the inferior labors and whether does it cause a bigger income gap within all the labors? Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop an useful model to analyze the effect of Labor Pension Act and Labor Standards Act Pension System on the consumption and savings of households. Moreover, this model also can be use to calculate how much pension households can receive.
This paper applies the concept of Markov chain (Imrohoroglu, Imrohoroglu, and Joines, 1998) to develop a partial general equilibrium model for the security system in Taiwan. Through the study, it can be found that Labor Pension Act may increase the present value of utility and households could receive higher present value of pensions from employers’ contributions. It is thought that the Act could bring higher income for households after they retire. However, it is thought that the Act could also cause the gap of income distribution between males and females widen due to the different positions in the labor market. Moreover, tax incentives will enlarge this gap much seriously. As a result, the government should keep an eye on the influence of such controversial tax policy, and beware of its impact all the time.

參考文獻

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