解構2008-2009年金融風暴期間的貿易崩潰 ─ 以台灣電子零組件出口為例

Decomposing the Trade Collapse during the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis - A Case Study of Taiwanese Exports of Electronic Parts and Components

馬瑋德(Wei-te Ma)

指導教授 ： 馮炳萱

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2011.00137

摘要

透過足夠分化的資料以及不同時點的資料取樣，本文揭露了金融海嘯期間台灣電子零組件出口貿易崩潰的細緻過程。有別於僅僅斷定本次貿易崩潰為Intensive margins主導或Extensive margins主導，不同時點的取樣呈現了截然不同的結果。本文透過如此巨大的轉變發現，電子零組件出口貿易量的縮減隨著金融海嘯的發生而開始，在貿易崩潰情況隨時間的拉長而嚴重後，部分商品亦在2009年第一季或第二季以退出市場作結。

在2009年至2010年的貿易解構當中，本文發現在2008年即存在的商品主導了貿易復甦，此與過去學者們所宣稱之「當貿易崩潰由Intensive margins主導，在景氣改善時，將復甦地相對於Extensive margins主導的貿易崩潰來得快速」的說法亦不相違背。據此，本文認為在國外景氣復甦後，將有助於國內經濟成長之復甦。

研究一個較易受信用限制的產業，電子零組件出口貿易在金融海嘯期間，其商品價格與數量呈反向變動的關係是顯著且相當大的；同時，在商品交易數量為減少的情況下，價格上升的證據是明顯的。本文提供了一個供給面在金融海嘯後的貿易崩潰期間亦具有一定市場力的證據，一個合理的解釋為，在所有廠商受信用限制後，有能力供應較大數量的商品或較有生產力的廠商，將因其有能力供應絕大部分的數量或較高品質的商品而更具議價能力。

關鍵字

金融海嘯 ； 貿易崩潰 ； Intensive margins ； Extensive margins ； 信用限制

並列摘要

This paper reveals a meticulous process of the trade collapse during the financial crisis of the exports of electronic parts and components in Taiwan by using well-differentiated data and the sampling of different time interval. We show the samplings of different time interval dominate the result of intensive or extensive margins which is mattered the most. The evidence suggests that the financial crisis accompanied trade collapse with the reduction of the volume, and some of the items exited in the first or second quarter of 2009.

We discover that the items already existed in 2008 dominate the recovery of trade from 2009 to 2010, and this doesn’t violate the declaration by the former that “If the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, trade will bounce back relatively quickly once conditions improve”. In view of the above, we believe that the conditions improved abroad would boost Taiwan’s economy.

In our consideration of investigating a sector which is likely to be credit-constrained, the price goes up obviously on average. We provide some evidence that supply sides have a little market power during the financial crisis. A reasonable explanation is that firms which have the ability to supply most of the demand would have the power in charging a higher price.

並列關鍵字

financial crisis ； trade collapse ； Intensive margins ； Extensive margins ； credit constraint

參考文獻

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