平面電視的世代演進以生命週期分析

Using life-cycle to analysis the evolution of flat-panel TVs generation

黃敬家(Ching-Chia Huang)

指導教授 ： 胡美智

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/科技管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2011.00392

摘要

電視發展到現在，已經成為人們家庭裡面必備的家電之一，早期厚重又大型的機器，到現在輕薄且多功，且其也為人們獲取資訊的管道之一。
本研究將利用美國專利局（United States Patent and Trademark Office, USPTO）專利檢索之專利指標作為估計技術生命週期S曲線發展趨勢的資料來源，進一步推估技術生命週期各階段發生的時間點。以成長曲線法中的羅吉斯成長模型，對目前電視的四個世代分別進行探討，並運用Loglet Lab 2 軟體分析四個電視世代的技術生命週期，來探索電視世代的演進。
本研究主要的結論為看到現在電視世代的演進，早期取代CRT電視的LCD電視現在已經在技術成熟期的後期，相對的要取代它的LED-BL電視近年來滲透率逐年上升，終端產品價格不斷下降，技術也來到了成熟期；而現在最熱門的3D電視，則被視為有可能是下個電視的世代，雖然其終端產品的價格目前居高不下，但其技術尚在成長期中，未來成長力道大；最後是不需要背光源，具有LCD沒有的優點被視為最有可能取代LCD的OLED技術，不過因為尚未有量產化的產品出現，而其技術目前也尚在成長期的前端，但是許多廠商的投入也可以看出其未來的潛力。
而現代電視的發展，廠商也不再一直重視技術與產能，電視的演進也不再只是追求尺寸與畫質，未來的電視將會變成一個多功能且滿足消費者需求的家電。

關鍵字

平面電視 ； 技術生命週期 ； 羅吉斯成長模型 ； 專利分析

並列摘要

Development of television to the present, has become one of an essential appliance inside the family. The TV was heavy and large machinery early, and now thin and multi-functional, and its one of the channels for people accessing to information.
This study will utilize the U.S. patent office (United States Patent and Trademark Office, USPTO) patent documents to search of the patent indicators as estimates of the technology life cycle S curve trends Sources and further estimate the technology life cycle phases occurred at a time point. The four generations of television were present to explore by using the growth curve of the logistic growth model, and using the software Loglet Lab 2 to analysis of four generations of the technology life cycle of television to explore the evolution of television generation.
The main conclusions of this study was to confirm the evolution of current TV generation, In the early the LCD TVs replace the CRT TVs which is now in late mature stage in the life cycle. And the LED-BL TVs’ penetration rate increased year after year in recent years, which is has come to maturity in life cycle, the price of the end products declining; and now the most popular 3D TV, is considered likely to be the next generation of television, although the current high prices of end products, but the technology was still growing in great strength of future growth; Finally, OLED technology seen as most likely to replace the LCD and its technology is also still growing in the front end,
The evolution of television is no longer simply the pursuit of size and quality, the future of TV will be turned into a multi-functional and meet consumer demand for home appliances.

並列關鍵字

flat panel TV ； technology life cycle ； logistic growth model ； patent analysis

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