目標年再生能源替代供給規劃 -以台灣能源環境為例

Target Year Energy Supply-Mix Planning with Renewable Energy Substitution - In The Case of Taiwan

宋孟玶(Sung, meng ping)

指導教授 ： 王小璠

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2015.00583

摘要

二十一世紀是個值得反思的時代，科技革新帶給人們更嶄新的生活，走在這條競爭且無盡的科技鋼索上，背後遺留的卻是自然環境反撲、能源耗竭等重要的警訊。尤其是近幾年，大量使用非再生化石燃料，加劇環境面溫室效應的問題，且對於高度仰賴化石燃料進口的國家而言，其經濟發展受到化石燃料的國際價格變動而影響甚鉅；再者，2011年震驚國際的日本福島核災，讓人們開始檢討原被視為潔淨又穩定的核能之安全性。綜觀以上，發展新興替代能源，以及探討替代能源在未來能源發電結構上的影響，為相當重要的議題。
本研究提出的多目標能源供給組合模型考量了經濟、安全性及環境三個層面，並以「上至下」的角度來處理能源供給規劃問題。因此，此能源供給模型所得出的建議，可作為佐以政府發展替代能源的參考依據。
本研究提供的三種政策建議方針依序為策略面、最佳面、及特定情境議題。其中，策略面的建議是以目標規劃得出最符合政策走向的供給方案。但由於目標規劃得出的政策有其缺失，尤其是經濟面的發電成本著實高於政府規劃的方案，非整體目標的最佳建議，因此，接續的分析即同時探討發電支出、安全性成本，及環境排放成本三個層面，提供最佳能源供給組合方案。最後則是就環境排放議題，作碳稅訂定的情境分析。
目標規畫是得出一符合政府政策目標的「有效建議」。但在達到首重的碳排放減量目標時，經濟面的發電成本會因為潔淨能源的發電量增加而大幅提高。因此，接續的多目標最佳化模型提供了整體目標的最佳建議，考量了經濟、安全與環境面，於滿足每月電力需求、再生能源發電目標，及滿足尖峰用電的條件下，提供決策者目標年的能源裝置量規畫，及每月發電配比之建議。
本研究以台灣能源環境為例，就重要的能源議題，提出有效的政策建議。

關鍵字

上而下 ； 目標規劃 ； 最佳能源供給組合 ； 情境分析 ； 再生能源

並列摘要

The developments in technology have simultaneously changed our lives and exhausted energy resources since the 20th century. For example, using of fossil fuels has not only led to environmental problems such as greenhouse gas emissions, but has also significantly affected the international crude oil price, which has subsequently affected the national economy. The 2011 nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan attracted the interest of international bodies regarding nuclear energy, which has been originally regarded as a clean and safe energy resource. Based on these phenomena, the use of alternative energies must be investigated.
The proposed Energy Supply-Mix model is a multi-objective model that measures the aspects of economy, security, and environment. This study adopts the top-down perspective to address the energy supply planning problem. The results of this model can be used by decision makers as reference when formulating policies.
This study investigates three issues, namely, “strategic suggestion,” “optimal policy,” and “scenario analysis for critical issue.” “Strategic suggestion” is evaluated based on the current policies and by adopting the goal programming model. However, given the shortcomings of this model, including its excessive generation cost, this study develops an optimization program that derives the optimal energy supply-mix for a multi-objective problem at the lowest composite cost. The environmental issue of carbon tax is discussed via scenario analysis.
The goal programming model provides efficient solutions for the current policies. Given the high economic costs of this model, another optimal balanced solution is devised by developing an Energy Supply-Mix model that provides an overall assessment of three aspects, namely, economy, security, and environment, under the conditions of balancing supply and demand, achieving the generation percentage of renewable energies, and satisfying the peak hour demand.
This study takes the energy environment of Taiwan as an example and provides the efficient policies to support decision makers.

並列關鍵字

top-down ； goal programming ； optimal energy supply-mix ； scenario analysis ； renewable energies

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