Self-employment in Hong Kong

蘇正偉(Sou, Cheng Wai)

指導教授 ： 莊慧玲

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

自營作業因為可以促進就業及刺激經濟成長，日益受到政界及學界的重視。自上世紀八十年代起，國外對於自營作業的研究與日俱增。香港是世界經濟中重要的一員，然而對香港自營作業的探討卻不多。這篇論文的主要目的是對香港的自營作業者進行實證分析。另外，由於在初步分析中發現香港的自營作業比率於2000至2001年期間出現相當大的變化，而在同一時間，香港政府推出新的退休基金制度。此制度於香港民間討論甚豐，認為此制度扭曲了勞動市場，令自營作業者增多，因而本文另一目的即是針對此議題進行討論分析。本文使用了1985年第一季至2011年第二季的季度資料進行總體分析。另外亦使用了10個季度的原始資料進行個體分析。本文使用了error correction 模型進行總體實證研究；probit 模型及bivariate probit 模型進行個體計量分析。總體實證的結果部份支持香港自營作業者存在「不景氣–推擠」效果，特別是建築產業之中。個體分析的結果顯示，年長的人有比較大的機會是自營作業者，但效果會隨年齡上升而輕微衰減；男性比較傾向成為自營作業者；學歷並沒有顯著的影響力。而本文的研究亦顯示財務資源的多寡及資金成本會影響勞動人口選擇成為自營作業者的意願。對於2000至2001年的大改變，本文研究發現該退休金制度對於建築產業的自營作業者比例有著一定程度的影響。

關鍵字

自營作業 ； 香港 ； 不景氣–推擠效果 ； 景氣–吸引效果 ； 人力資本 ； 流動性限制 ； Error correction模型 ； Probit模型 ； Bivariate probit模型

並列摘要

This study investigates the self-employment in Hong Kong. Self-employment has become increasingly attended in recent decades because of its function of generating employment and economic growth. Hong Kong as an important developed economy in the world, only a few research investigated the topic in Hong Kong. The purpose of this thesis is to study the self-employment in Hong Kong, in order to fill the gap. In addition, the data showed that the self-employment rate in Hong Kong had a big jump between 2000 and 2001. In the same year, the Hong Kong government introduced a new pension system, which has raised a lot of debates regarding its impact on the labor market. This thesis also examines this issue. The General Household Survey dataset is used in this study. Quarterly data ranging from 1985Q1 to 2011Q2 are used for macro analysis; ten quarters of individual data are used for micro analysis. The error correction model is adopted for macro analysis; the probit and the bivariate probit model are used for micro analysis. The findings show that there are some evidence supporting the recession-push hypothesis, particularly in the construction industry. Regarding the probability of being self-employed, age has a positive effect but formal schooling has no effect on self-employment. Financial resource increases one’s probability of becoming self-employed and males are more likely to be self-employed. Regarding the big jump, this study concludes that the pension system has certain effect on the self-employment rate in the construction industry.

並列關鍵字

Self-employment ； Hong Kong ； Recession-push hypothesis ； Prosperity-pull hypothesis ； Human capital ； Liquidity ； Error correction model ； Probit model ； Bivariate probit model

參考文獻

Occupational Safety and Health Council (2010). Occupational Safety and Health Survey of Professional Drivers in Hong Kong

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Bates, T. (1995). Self-employment entry across industry groups. Journal of Business Venturing 10: 143-56

Bernhardt, I. (1994). Comparative advantage in self-employment and paid work. Canadian Journal of Economics, 273-89