第五代行動通信系統單晶片的研發策略: 策略賽局理論的角度

Game Theory and Strategy for the Development of 5G’s System on Chip

張耕豪(Keng-Hao Chang)

指導教授 ： 胡美智

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經營管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2021年)

摘要

每一個無線通訊世代都有新標準的制定。通訊系統單晶片 業者根據新標準擬定研發策略，往往是市場成功的關鍵因素。第五代行動通訊系統單晶片業者的競爭是一個全新的競賽，它不僅是先前4G技術的延升，而且還有許多突破的應用，例如物聯網、自駕車、智慧城市等應用，對數位經濟發展至為重要。
在無線通訊產業中，頻譜被視為有限的資源。到了5G，為了避免既有的4G頻譜負荷量太大，於是3GPP 制定兩個頻譜作為5G行動標準以增加用戶量。一個是在介於410 MHz – 7125 MHz中低頻的Sub-6G；另一個介於 24250 MHz – 52600 MHz高頻的mmWave。在高頻的mmWave，手機訊號傳輸效率較佳但卻有無法穿透障礙物的缺點，需要布局大量的基地台去克服。反之，在中低頻的Sub-6G雖傳輸效率不及mmWave，但卻有具有較好的穿透力，容易布局基地台的優點。無論如何，通訊系統單晶片業者必須在5G的競爭下選擇發展Sub-6G或mmWave的策略，以搶得最大市占率。
然而，通訊系統單晶片的競爭，宛如一個巨額支出的軍備競賽，晶片業者必須使用昂貴的先進製程以追求效能與速度，同時亦要兼顧市場的佔有率以確保投資報酬率的成長。因此初期開發的策略攸關市場佔有率的取得。本文以2020下半年聯發科發表的天璣1000與高通的Snap Dragon 865作為個案，探討5G通訊系統單晶片初期，聯發科採用Sub-6G晶片設計以迎戰對手高通將mmWave與Sub6G整合設計的競爭，最後聯發科在5G初期市場的佔有率取得優勢。
本文用策略賽局理論作為觀點分析發展5G初期兩間系統單晶片廠商應採取的策略，並以後進者追趕循環(Keun Lee,Franco Malerba,2017)分析現實中高通與聯發科分別採取的策略。
假設兩間系統單晶片公司的規模與研發實力相同，且有相同的共同知識與及利益目標追求5G初期市場的市佔率，本文研究發現在奈許均衡(Nash Equilibrium)下，兩晶片廠商的優勢策略應是聚焦發展Sub-6G，而非發展mmWave。聯發科選擇優勢策略Sub-6G之後，在亞洲市場有了可趁之機，在5G初期搶過高通的市占率。本研究之策略賽局理論與及後進者追趕循環亦可分析未來6G及其他科技產業的發展應用。

關鍵字：行動通訊晶片、賽局理論、後進者追趕循環、5G通訊標準

關鍵字

行動通訊晶片 ； 賽局理論 ； 後進者追趕循環 ； 5G通訊標準

並列摘要

Each generation of the mobile communication industry has a new standard. How to choose the strategy for research and development to become the key factor for mobile SoC chipmakers. A successful strategy will grow the market shares whereas an ineffective strategy will decrease in market share. 5G mobile SoC is a brand-new competition. The technology that has been used not only the extension from the previous 4G. It also has a lot of breakthrough application such as internet of things, driverless cars, and smart cities, which has tremendous influence to our digital economy.
In the mobile communication industry, the spectrum is considered as a finite resource. To prevent the capacity overload in the previous 4G, 3GPP introduces 2 bandwidth spectrums as standard to increase spectrum capacity. One is between 410 MHz – 7125 MHz known as the low mid band Sub-6G, another is the high band between 24250 MHz – 52600 MH known as mmWave. mmWave has high bit rate and data speed but has less signal penetration to the obstacle, which should need to deploy a lot of base stations to resolve the signal transmit problem. On the other hand, low mid band Sub-6G has less data speed, but better signal penetration than mmWave, which is easier to deploy base stations in the early stage. Despite this, mobile SoC chipmaker must choose their strategy to develop Sub-6G and mmWave during the 5G competition to capture the largest market share.
However, this competition is like an arms race. Chipmakers must spend large R&D expenses on advanced semiconductor processes to pursuit speed performance and market share at the same time. Therefore, choosing the development strategy become the key factor to capture the market share. This thesis uses the scenario of the 5G SoC competition of Mediatek Dimensity 1000 verse Qualcomm Snapdragon 865 in 2020 as a case study. Discussing why Mediatek adopts Sub-6G only, while Qualcomm adopts the integration of Sub-6G and mmWave in one chip. In the end, Mediatek takes the lead in 5G's early market share. This thesis uses a strategic game model from game theory to analyze the development strategy for 2 chip makers should adopt in the 5G early stage, and uses latecomer catch-up cycle (Keun Lee, Franco Malerba,2017) to analyze the reality strategy between the incumbent, Qualcomm, and latecomer, Mediatek strategy in the early stage of 5G.
If we assume that 2 chipmakers have the same size and capabilities, same common knowledge, and the same interest in pursuing the early 5G SoC market share The dominant strategy is the Nash Equilibrium for both chipmakers is to choose Sub-6G instead of mmWave. In our case study, Mediatek chooses the dominant strategy to develop Sub-6G, which has the advantage to capture a larger market share in Asia than Qualcomm. We believe that the proposed strategic game theory and the latecomer catch-up for 5G can be also applied in 6G and other industries.

Keywords: mobile SoC chip, game theory, latecomer catch-up, 5G communication standard

並列關鍵字

mobile SoC chip ； game theory ； latecomer catch-up ； 5G communication standard

參考文獻

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