中國改革開放後適齡未婚現象探討

An analysis of the phenomenon of staying single at the appropriate age for marriage after Chinese Economic Reform

羅傑茗(Chieh-Ming Lo)

指導教授 ： 林宗弘

國立清華大學/人文社會學院/社會學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2013.00604

摘要

摘要
改革開放之後，中國社會的適婚青年未婚比率逐日提高，適齡未婚現象儼然成為近年中國重要的人口議題。然而，中國青年的適齡未婚因素為何？他們是晚婚？不婚？還是無法結婚呢？針對這些問題，本文使用中國2008年的綜合社會調查(China Social General Survey, CGSS 2008)，並搭配隨機效果事件史模型(Random Effect Event History Model)，探討中國青年主要適齡未婚因素，以及他們未來成為潛在終生未婚機率。研究結果顯示：受到工業化教育以及職業結構轉變的影響，適齡青年的初婚年齡因此向後延遲，整體的適齡未婚機率也因此向上提升。除此之外，本研究還發現中國男性工人的適齡結婚機率明顯低於其他職業，而35歲的未婚情形也比其他職業來得嚴重。

關鍵字：中國人口、婚姻、結婚時間、晚婚、終生未婚

關鍵字

中國人口 ； 婚姻 ； 結婚時間 ； 晚婚 ； 終生未婚

並列摘要

Abstract
After Chinese Economic Reform, the proportion of single people at the appropriate age for marriage is rising, and the phenomenon becomes one of the most important issues for Chinese demography. However, are these people getting married later? Do they reject to get married? Can’t they get married? In order to answer these questions, this article uses data from China Social General Survey at 2008 with Random Effect Event History Model to examine the unmarried reasons for these people and estimate their probability of getting married. I find that: Because of the transitions of educational structures and the labor market by industrialization, most of people delay their first marriage time, therefore, they decline the marriage rate at the appropriate age for marriage of Chinese society. Furthermore, I find Chinese male workers are significantly difficult to get married than others who are unmarried at 35 years old.

Key words: Chinese demography, marriage, marriage timing, late marriage, never married

並列關鍵字

Chinese demography ； marriage ； marriage timing ； late marriage ； never married

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