以情境規劃構框

Scenario Planning as Framing

林貫文(Kuan-Wen Lin)

指導教授 ： 洪世章

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/科技管理研究所/碩士(2014年)

摘要

現今在講究民意的現代社會中，無論是政治家或企業領導人，要說服民眾或員工接受領導，是個重要的議題，因此做好政策行銷，贏得跟隨者的認可，是一個重要的工具。
「構框」的觀念強調：領導人將感知到的事實的特定面向，作一些挑選，在一些溝通內容做強調或推廣，引導群眾聚焦在特定的觀察角度上，激勵跟從者去達成設定的目標。其中透過「情境規劃」的方式，建立未來各種的可能情境，將參考架構擴大，不只從單一角度審視狀況，而是採取多面向的方式，來發掘問題或釐清討論議題，並且更寬廣且自由的思考問題與建立共識。
將「情境規劃」作為「構框」工具，可以藉由設計未來可能的情境發展，產生共同的組織語言，達成組織內部的共識。亦即將各種未來的可能狀況做一些設計，降低群眾的疑慮，讓群眾對宣導的政策或策略方向產生信心，進而達到領導的效果。
本文亦針對幾個案例，進行情境規劃作為構框工具的探討：殼牌公司利用所發展的情境，成功的度過了能源危機；南非在民主化過程中，利用「鳥人情境」領導眾人支持謹慎的經濟政策；學生佔領立法院的情境分析、政府打房政策的情境分析；以及第九次全科會會議紀錄的分析。

關鍵字

情境規劃 ； 構框 ； 框架 ； 殼牌石油 ； 南非民主化 ； 政策行銷

並列摘要

In today's democratic society, whether politicians or business leaders need an effective policy marketing strategy powerful tool to persuade their followers to do.
The concept of framing is that the leader motivates followers to achieve the set goal through making emphasize some communication or promotional content, and guide the people to focus on a particular viewing angle.
The approach of scenario planning provides a variety of possible future scenarios to expand the frames of reference, and take more broad and liberal thinking way to have consensus-building.
The process of scenario planning approach as the framing tool is to design some possible future scenarios, develop common language, and therefore reaching a consensus within the organization.
This article also serves several cases ,which is related to scenario planning as the framing tool. Including Shell coping with the oil crisis successfully with using scenarios; the role of Icarus scenario in the democratization in South Africa; the scenarios about students occupied Legislative Yuan, the scenarios related to government's housing policy; and analyzing records of the 9th national science and technology conference.

並列關鍵字

scenario planning ； framing ； frames ； Shell ； democratization in South Africa ； sell policies to the public

參考文獻

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