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  • 學位論文

加值型雙元貨幣產品 投資決策分析

Decision Making Analysis for Yield-enhanced Dual Currency Investment

指導教授 : 簡禎富
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摘要


摘要 隨著低利率時代的來臨,一般的定存利率己難以打敗通貨膨脹率,為避免財富資產縮水,「財富管理」己成為投資人理財的顯學。然而,財富管理的重要精神是透過完整的資產配置把”適合的產品”給”適合”的客戶。其中,外幣存款結合外幣選擇權的結構型商品-加值型雙元貨幣產品,己成為國內財富管理銀行用來取代外幣存款的主要理財工具之一,惟可惜的是國內理專和投資人對此商品的認知不足,以致投資收益絕大多數都是不如預期,而留下不好的投資經驗。另一方面,很少相關研究從決策者的角度分析加值型雙元貨幣產品之投資決策。 本研究針對加值型雙元貨幣產品是否適合納入客戶的短期外幣投資配置,發展出加值型雙元投資的理性決策機制,以紫式決策分析架構為基礎,並以決策樹和敏感度分析找出影響投資結果的主要決策因素和對應的策略方案,幫助投資人如何可以利用既有的綜合資訊裡做出系統化的評估;並以A銀行客戶群過去的交易資料加以實証分析,有效的邏輯推理和研判以做出最佳化的雙元外幣投資決策,提高成功獲利的投資機會。 研究結果顯示加值型雙元貨幣產品並不是保本投資,故適合一般願意持有外幣並能接受一定匯率風險程度的投資人;而慎選貨幣組合是致勝的關鍵且貨幣組合不要因為追求高收益率而不斷變更貨幣組合,建議不要超過3種貨幣,以免損益計算複雜,以避免以往投資人賺了高息收益,却賠了匯差的不當操作策略和投資結果。但若操作決策得宜,加值型雙元貨幣產品天期短,流動性高以及優於定存的收益率等特色,是值得配置的外幣資金理財工具。 最後建議投資人投資前應充份了解此商品的內容結構和風險;金融業也要善盡善良管理人之責任誠實告知可能的投資結果和事先揭露可能的投資風險,並且加強理專專業知識和方便客戶操作管理的帳戶平台;而主管機關應協助業者建立完善法規和制度,而不是一味的因噎廢食,以繁雜不合時宜的法令限制了整體業務的推廣和發展。 關鍵字:雙元貨幣、外匯選擇權、結構型商品、紫式決策分析架構、 決策樹

並列摘要


Abstract Reaching the era of low interest rates, the average deposit rate has been unable to compensate the inflation. Dual currency that is one of the structure-linked products has become one of the major financial instruments of foreign currency deposits. Unfortunately, most of the investment results were not as good as expected due to both the bankers and investors may not be professional of the product and the decision traps. However, little research has been done to address the decision making invovled in dual currency investment. To fill the gaps, this thesis aims to address the issue whther the dual currency is suitable for the customer's short-term foreign currency investments and how the investors can take advantage of existing information in a comprehensive and systematic assessment to make an effective and logical decision for the optimal dual currency investment decisions to improve the outcome. Based on Unison Decision Framework, this thesis developed the decsion framework for dual currency investments and employeddecision tree and sensitivity analysis to identify the major factors affecting investment decisions. An empirical study was conducted to analyze real cases from the historical transactions data of three customers in A-bank. The results have illustrated the proposed approach and also shown practical viability of the developed framework. Indeed, yield-enhanced dual currency investment products is not guaranteed but it is suitable for the inventors who are willing to take foreign currency exchange risk to seek better return than deposits. The currency portfolio is one of the key success factors to make investment decisions. However, dual currency with high liquidity and superior deposit yieldis is worthy of the foreign currency financial instruments. Based on the research findings, we recommend the investors should fully understand the structure and content of the risk invovled in the financial investment products such as yield-enhanced dual currency before investment. Financial sector should fulfill the responsibilities of a good administrator and reveal possible investment risks to the investors and strengthen management expertise and investment platform. Finally, the government authority should assist the industry to establish a sound regulatory and institutional to develop of the overall business. Key words : Dual Currency Investment ; Currency Options ; Structured deposit; UNISON Decision Analysis Framework; Decision tree

參考文獻


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