結合AHP與TOPSIS的價值探索法求解需求不確定之供應鏈問題

In Response to Demand Uncertainty of Supply Chains: A Value-Focused Approach with AHP and TOPSIS

劉東昇(Tong-Sheng Liu)

指導教授 ： 陳建良

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6843/NTHU.2014.00300

摘要

需求的不確定性、快速變化的商業環境中與技術創新的高速度是製造企業的供應鏈風險的主要原因。因此，如何選擇最佳承受風險的廠區以及提供最適風險管理策略，以減輕需求不確定性所造成的供應鏈影響是許多跨國製造企業的共同問題。在此研究中，提出的概念風險管理計劃以整合風險識別和風險評估，接著在此基礎上，制定風險管理行動計畫的框架，建立了如何實現風險管理的行動計畫的詳細步驟。在本研究過程中採用兩種多屬性決策分析工具，即層次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Analysis, AHP）和相似性理想解偏好排序技術（Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS），進行各個廠區承受風險能力的評估與優先順序，同時確定出影響需求不確定的重要風險因素，用來以建立規避風險的供應鏈管理策略，為管理者提供策略方向和對策，以降低需求不確定性風險損害。

關鍵字

風險管理 ； 供應鏈管理 ； 層次分析法 ； 技術的相似性到理想的解決方案

並列摘要

Demand uncertainty, rapid changes in the business environment, and high pace of technology innovation are the main causes of supply chain risk for manufacturing companies. Thus, selecting the optimal plants to mitigate the supply chain disruption caused by demand uncertainty is a common problem for many multinational manufacturing companies. In this study, a conceptual risk management plan is proposed to integrate risk identification and risk assessment. Then, a framework of the risk management action plan is developed and a detailed procedure of how to implement the risk management action plan is proposed. Two multi-attribute decision analysis tools, namely, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), are utilized to identify the risk factors and to determine the optimal plant for order fulfillment. Finally, strategic directions, actions, and necessary conditions that help advance effective mitigation practices are suggested. The developed approach is implemented in a multinational manufacturing company. The results of this study show that the proposed methodology helps supply chain planners understand the manner of evaluating the risk criteria for each manufacturing site and the problems that should be solved for risk management. By using appropriate tools and strategies for risk management, supply chain planners can turn demand uncertainty into value-added results for the corporation.

並列關鍵字

risk management ； supply chain management ； AHP ； TOPSIS

參考文獻

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