大規模風、光發電對台灣發電系統可靠度之影響分析

Impact Analysis of Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power on Generation System Reliability of Taiwan

陳昱安(Yu-An Chen)

指導教授 ： 陳士麟 ； 許世哲

中原大學/電機資訊學院/電機工程研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201700803

摘要

依據政府所規劃之我國2025年再生能源發電比例要達20%的政策目標，未來可預期大量再生能源的併網。大量風力發電和太陽光電併入電力系統，除對短期電力調度造成衝擊與影響外，也會影響長期整體電力供需之規劃。
本研究分為兩部份，第一部份建構台電系統在高佔比再生能源併網情況下，最適供電可靠度模型，並提出計算再生能源發電之可靠容量率的評估方法；第二部份結合歷史資料模擬並推估未來再生能源的可靠容量率，並以兩種模擬方式相互驗證。再依據此發電系統可靠度模型，分析在台電公司的10510電源開發方案下之長期電源結構方案，模擬評估至2025年的系統備用容量率。
本研究考量在不同案例下所得之可靠容量率，並使用10510電源開發方案的電源組合，將政府所公佈的再生能源發展計畫納入至發電系統可靠度分析模擬中，作為台灣未來擬訂再生能源併網規模之重要參考。

關鍵字

再生能源 ； 風電 ； 太陽光電 ； 可靠容量率 ； 滲透率 ； 缺電機率 ； 可靠度 ； 備用容量率

並列摘要

According to the Government policy of Taiwan, the renewable energy(RE) out of the total power generation should reach 20%. There will then be a large scale of RE sources(RES’s) integrated into the power system. A large scale of wind and PV generation will affect the power dispatch in short term and also influence the long term supply and demand of total power generation program.
The thesis contains two parts: first, we develop an analysis model for the reliability evaluation of Taiwan’s power generation system, and then present a calculation method for the capacity credit of RES’s evaluation; secondly, applying this method, we combine with historical data to simulate and estimate the future capacity credit of renewable energy, and two ways to verify each other. Based on the 10510 power development programs of Taipower Company, and simulate the system reserve capacity rate in 2025.
Taking into account different cases of the capacity credit in power source combination of the 10510 power development programs, which includes the power development programs under RES capacity according to Government policy. We brought the new energy policy proclaimed by the government into the analysis and simulation of the reliability of power generation system as an important reference for planning the large scale of renewable energy in Taiwan for the future.

並列關鍵字

Renewable Energy ； Wind Power ； Solar Power ； Capacity Credit ； Penetration Level ； LOLP

參考文獻

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