全球行動支付比率之關鍵因素

本研究針對全球33個國家，以2008年至2015年的年資料為頻率，使用Panel Data模型之一元和二元固定效果與隨機效果進行實證分析。探討影響各國使用行動支付的可能影響因素，試圖從科技面因素與總體經濟面因素中，找出與行動支付比率的關聯。本文將影響因素分為:上網人口比率70%以上及以下國家；移動手機門號成長率2.5%以上及以下國家；教育指數80%以上及以下國家；國家競爭力排名25名以上及以下國家。同時，加入調整係數分析，進一步探討各因素對各國預期達成使用行動支付目標的調整速率影響。本研究以使用卡片支付的消費貢獻度、GDP貢獻度做為行動支付比率的替代變數。實證結果發現，移動手機門號成長率、上網人口比率、通貨膨脹率、教育指數、國家競爭力排名，對使用行動支付的比率呈現顯著正相關。而失業率、研發金額、都市化程度、數位應用能力，對使用行動支付的比率呈現顯著負相關。本研究中加入調整係數來判斷達成的調整速率水準，發現對使用支付卡片的消費貢獻度、GDP貢獻度調整係數中，皆以國家競爭力排名25以上最大，國家教育指數80%以下為最小。代表國家競爭力高的國家可透過相關政策的改變，能較快達到提高行動支付比率。另外，教育指數低的國家想要提高行動支付比率會需要較久時間。

關鍵字

Panel Data模型；行動支付比率；使用支付卡片的消費貢獻度；使用支付卡片的GDP貢獻度；調整係數

並列摘要

This study uses the annual data of 33 countries around the world obtained from 2008 to 2015 as the frequency. By utilizing the Panel Data with one way and two way of fixed and random effects model for empirical analysis, this paper explores the possible influencing factors that affect the use of mobile payments in various countries. Moreover, this studty trys to find out the relationship between the ratio of mobile payment and the factors of technology and macroeconomics. In this paper, the influencing factors were subdivided into: the Internet Population Rate above and below 70%, the Mobile Phone Number Growth Rate above and below 2.5%, the Educational Index above and below 80%, and Ranking of the National Competitiveness above and below 25. By adding a speed adjustment coefficient this paper further explores the impact of various factors on the rate of adjustments desired by countries to reach the target of promoting mobile payments. This study uses the Usage of Payment Card for Consumption Contribution and the Usage of Payment Card for GDP Contribution as a substitution variable to the mobile payment ratio. The empirical results show that Mobile Phone Number Growth Rate, Internet Population Rate, Inflation Rate, Educational Index, and Ranking of the National Competitiveness were positively correlated with the mobile payment ratio. On the other hand, Unemployment Rate, Total Expenditure on R&D, Urbanization Rate, and Digital Application Skills were negatively correlated with the mobile payment ratio. The adjustment coefficient was added to judge the rate of desired adjustment level in this study. The comparison of the Usage of Payment Card for Consumption Contribution and for GDP Contribution showed that the largest adjustment coefficient existed in Ranking of the National Competitiveness above 25, while the smallest adjustment coefficient was Educational Index below 80%. This means that countries with high national competitiveness can quickly achieve the mobile payment ratio through changes in relevant policies. In addition, countries with a low education index will need longer time to achieve the desired level in the mobile payment ratio.