現 金 流 量、轉 換 機 率 與 融 資 決 策： －台 灣 可 轉 換 公 司 債 發 行 之 實 證－

CASH FLOW, LIKELIHOOD OF CONVERSION AND CORPORATE FINANCING DECISION： CASE OF TAIWANESE CONVERTIBLE BONDS OFFERING

唐心怡(Shin-I Tang)

指導教授 ： 俞海琴

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2003年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200300250

摘要

摘要

**本研究探討之現金流量來自Gentry and Lee (1995)修正 Helfert (1982) 之模型；用於解釋證券發行者之現金流量表現與其所發行證券隱含權益性質多寡間的關聯度。鑑於台灣之可轉債發行具預期轉換期間短之特質且多為走後門之權益融資方式，因此我們將探討轉換機率是否可用以衡量可轉債內隱含權益性質之多寡，以及在財務健全假說下，不同可轉債型態之發行公司現金流量表現是否有所不同。研究方法上，首先根據Burlacu (2000)，依轉換機率將可轉債區分為三型態，如債券型、混合型及權益型之可轉債；接續利用變異數分析、Tobit模型和T檢定等實證模型協助外部投資人探討發行公司相關變數是否為可轉債未來轉換機率大小之影響因素，進而判別出此可轉債隱含權益性質之多寡及型態。結果顯示：台灣大部分企業將可轉債發行視為一間接將股權導入其資本結構之融資工具；此外基於融資順位理論，財務體質較健全之發行者為了發射其財務體質佳的訊號，當面臨以發行可轉債作為其外部融資決策時，將傾向於發行轉換機率較低的債券型可轉債，此結論亦與財務健全假說相互印證。

關鍵字

轉換機率 ； 可轉換公司債 ； 預期轉換期間 ； 融資決策 ； 現金流量

並列摘要

Abstract

**The cash flow interpretation applied in this research is established by Helfert' s (1982) model and modified by Gentry and Lee (1995). This model is originally suggested in interpreting the linkage between cash flow performance of the securities' issuer and the equity component of various financing securities. In this research, owing to the short expected time to conversion and the strong “Back Door” features of Taiwanese convertible bonds, the likelihood of conversion may be considered as a mechanism when distinguishing the equity component embedded in convertibles but also a determinant in the examination about Financial Health Hypothesis upon issuers. According to Burlacu (2000), we firstly distinguish the convertible bonds into 3 types, i.e. debt-like, mixed, and equity-like convertible bonds, according to their likelihood of conversion. Later, three empirical are performed under Variance Test, Tobit Model, and T Test to examine the interpretative ability of issuers’ cash flow performance and other associate variables to the equity component in convertible bonds, which is measured in likelihood of conversion and may be a suggestive measurement for outside investors to investigate the different types of convertible bonds. In conclusion, we document that convertibles offerings in Taiwan are generally used as an indirect financing vehicle for getting equity into capital structure by most corporate. Meanwhile, the findings are identical to the financial health hypothesis, which refers to a tendency for a financially healthier corporate to offer a more debt-like convertible bond with lower likelihood of conversion, especially under the purpose of distinguishing itself from unhealthier ones according to Pecking Order Theory when facing with its external financing decision with convertible bond offering.

並列關鍵字

Convertible Bonds ； Expected Time to Conversion ； Likelihood of Conversion ； Cash Flow ； Corporate Financing Decision.

參考文獻

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