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  • 學位論文

企業生命循環週期對實質選擇權股權評價之影響 -台灣生化科技公司之實證分析-

The Effect of Business Life Cycle on Real Option Valuation: A Case of Taiwan’s Biotechnology Companies

指導教授 : 吳博欽
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摘要


90年代以來,台灣的重點產業一直都在電子業上,包括早期的晶圓片到目前眾所矚目的TFT-LCD產業。然而一股待蓬勃發展的機會正在生化科技產業逐漸浮現,一如目前政府所推動的「兩兆雙星」計畫,其中「雙星」之ㄧ即是未來的明星產業-「生化科技產業」,故找出適合生化科技公司的評價模式,以作為投資依據是相當重要性的。 本文在考量生化科技類股的特性,以Schwartz and Moon(2001)一文之實質選擇權評價模式評估生化科技公司的價值,且試圖驗證不同企業生命循環階段對於評價結果之影響。結果發現處於成長期生化科技公司較非成長期生化科技公司更適用於實質選擇權評價模式,此彌補過去國內文獻以模型評價生化科技產業公司時所未能考量之處。換言之,企業生命循環週期在股價的評估上,相當具有其意含。 其次,由敏感性分析發現,變動成本率、估計期間及資本資出率為最容易影響生化科技公司股價的重要變數。公司經營者可依此作為考量,以提昇公司的價值。此外,過去國內文獻在以Schwartz and Moon(2000,2001)實質選擇權評價生化科技或高科技類股時,直接以國外廠商採用之10年估計時間納入評價模型中,未考量台灣廠商多屬代工或者與國外廠商進行合作的模式生存,其研發創新能力不若國外廠商高,故所獲取超額利潤的估計時間應不足10年。因此,本文再分別以3, 5及8年為估計期,重新評估生化科技公司的股價。結果顯示估計期間愈短,使估計誤差縮小,估計的準確性提高,此說明以3年超額利潤期間作為評估台灣生化科技公司股價較為適當。

並列摘要


Since the 1990’s, the most important industry in Taiwan’s economic growth has been electronic industry, including the semi-conductor industry in the early and the TFT-LCD industry in more lately. However, there may be a new emerging growth opportunity in biotechnology industry and that is also the reason for government to develop biotechnology industry actively. To support this development strategy, evaluate the value of biotechnology companies is essential. This thesis tries to evaluate the value of Taiwan’s biotechnology company by adopting real option pricing model and to prove that different business life cycle stage has its own effect on the performance of evaluating stock price. The empirical result shows that it is more suitable for the biotechnology companies in the growth stage to use real option model to evaluate their value than those in maturity stage. That is, in the process of pricing a company’s value we can’t overlook the importance of judging its business life cycle stage. By the sensitivity analysis we also find that the variables affecting the value of biotechnology companies prominently are variable cost rate, capital expenditure rate and estimated period. Manager can change these variables to improve a company’s value. Literatures evaluating the value of biotechnology or technology companies by real option pricing model all used 10 years as estimated period just like the estimated period adopted by foreign literatures. However, Taiwan’s biotechnology companies always operate in OEM or in alliance with foreign large companies, and the period that can make excess profits should less than 10 years. Based on this characteristic, this article uses 3-, 5- and 8-year estimated period to simulate firm’s value individually. The shorter the estimated period is, the smaller the estimation error is.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


鄭清宗(2005)。應用實質選擇權於環保投資專案評估之研究-以MR3重金屬提鍊回收廠之設置為例〔碩士論文,淡江大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6846%2fTKU.2005.00670
游雅媛(2006)。考慮企業生命週期下評價模式適用性之研究 --以資訊電子業為例〔碩士論文,中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840%2fcycu200600312

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