雙元勞動市場下最低工資政策對就業影響的一般均衡分析

Minimum Wage and Employment under Dual Labor Market: A CGE Model Analysis

楊琇如(Hsiu-Ju Yang)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200500377

摘要

本研究利用一般均衡模型來探討台灣採行最低工資政策的狀況下，勞動市場中若存在薪資差異的問題會對勞動市場造成何種就業與失業的衝擊。本研究部門之分類係參照民國88年之45部門產業關聯表作為區分依據，並佐以各產業薪資水準資料併為10個部門。雙元勞動市場的部份，則係將人力運用調查報告中7種職業類別之勞動，區分為兩種職業類別勞動，分別對應初級與次級勞動市場。在模型設定上則是在初級勞動市場中考量廠商採行效率工資之行為，而在次級勞動市場則是考量最低工資政策之施行所造成的直接影響。此外，在政策模擬部份，除考量最低工資外，亦一併考量其他影響勞動市場之相關經濟變數，以期對最低工資政策之施行效果有更通盤之分析。
本研究模擬之重要結論如下：
一、總體經濟方面，總產值、實質國內生產毛額、總進出口，及家計單位勞動報酬，均顯示會隨最低工資的調升而呈現增加的狀況。而在失業部份，亦會隨最低工資調漲而改善；產生的可能原因則可歸於薪資水準提升，促使勞動願意投入就業市場所致。
二、在各部門之發展狀況方面，最低工資的調升會造成廠商成本負擔的增加，因而勞力密集產業所受之衝擊最大，不論產值或出口均隨最低工資的調漲呈現下滑的趨勢。
三、各部門之勞動就業狀況，可由以下兩方面觀之：
(一) 初級勞動市場中，傳統製造業就業量會隨基本工資之調升而呈現下滑的狀態。
(二) 次級勞動市場中，傳統農林漁牧業、傳統製造業、食品加工、紙及塑橡膠製 品製造業之就業量會隨基本工資之調升而呈現下滑的狀態。
四、兩種不同種類之勞動市場，不論廠商因應或勞工轉職考量上，對於最低工資的調整均會有相同的反應，差別僅在於程度上的變化。初級勞動市場薪資水準增加的幅度相對較次級勞動市場的增加幅度來的低，或許也因此使得初級勞動市場在就業量的變動上較次級勞動市場來的低。但此部分結果均無考量外勞引進問題，若考量外勞之引進，對於初級與次級勞動市場之衝擊在程度上的差異將會有所改變。
五、最低工資的採行是會對經濟體系各產業之勞動就業量有所影響，尤以勞動密集型產業為甚。而在施行最低工資政策的同時，一併考量勞動供給狀態則會對不同勞動市場之勞動就業量產生顯著不同的影響。
六、在最低工資變動的情況下，怠工被抓之機率及利率水準之增減對勞動市場就業的影響最大；而對失業量的影響部分，則屬利率水準增減變化之影響最大。

關鍵字

最低工資政策 ； 可計算一般均衡 ； 效率工資 ； 雙元勞動市場

並列摘要

Wage income is an important element for labor to hold their living style. And the key purpose of a minimum wage policy is to prevent labor from exploitation and poverty. That might be a good idea for welfare promotion, but wage level will also influence the employment situation in the labor market theoretically. There are different levels of workers in the labor market which might result in differential wages. Moreover, some workers might be paid higher than the market cleaning wage level for incentive to work rather than shirking. Since labor is one of input factor for production, a change in the employment level should affect the level of output. For all these reasons, the minimum wage policy enforcement should be a complicated problem, and its effects on the economy also needs to be measured in a general equilibrium way.
This thesis explores how minimum wage policy affects employment under dual labor market settings. A CGE model with dual labor market specifications is constructed to meet our research purposes. In the model, skilled and unskilled occupations are assigned to correspond to primary and secondary markets. Efficiency wage is considered in primary labor market, while the minimum wage is considered mainly in secondary market. Changes in minimum wage may indirectly affect the wage level in primary market through the model and market mechanisms. It will also affect the employment and unemployment situations in the labor market. Other factors such as labor supply and quit rate are also the key factors that need to be taken into consideration.
Our simulation results are summarized as follows:
(a)Raising minimum wage should have a positive effect on economic growth and a negative effect on unemployment.
(b)The differential employment effects on sectors are similar for primary and secondary labor markets. However, secondary markets fluctuate more than the primary markets.
(c)The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the probability a shirker would be caught and the quit rate are the most important factors that will affect employment levels with the minimum wage policy practices.

並列關鍵字

Efficiency wage ； Dual labor market ； Minimum wage policy ； Computable general equilibrium

參考文獻

單驥 (1990)，「基本工資釐定與檢討」，中華經濟研究院經濟論叢（18）。

陳禮潭 (2002)，「最低工資制定對工資結構變遷之影響--臺灣實證研究」，經濟論文叢 刊，第30卷第3期，頁383-420。

Dickens, William T. and Lang, Kevin. (1985),”A Test of Dual Labor Market,” American Economic Review, Vol. 75(4), pp: 792-805.

黃仁德 (1997)，「最低工資：所得分配與反貧窮效果的評析」，勞資關係論叢，第4期，頁29-55。

黃仁德 (1995)，「臺灣地區基本工資對勞動市場的衝擊效果評估」，勞資關係論叢，第3期，頁29-55。