運用合併報表或母公司報表估計裁決性應計項目之研究

An Empirical Evaluation of Accrual Prediction Models Utilizing Consolidated or Parent-only Financial Statements

曾家璿(Chia-hsuan Tseng)

指導教授 ： 林維珩

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200500694

摘要

本研究探討多個盈餘管理模式其偵測盈餘管理的能力。過去許多盈餘管理研究發現裁決性應計項目估計模式在極端財務績效樣本中，會造成裁決性應計項目的衡量誤差，因此，本研究著重在Jones及修正後Jones模式及其控制績效的變型(如：在模式當中加入資產報率或營運現金流量)。本研究透過裁決性應計模式的顯著水準(specification)與檢定力(power)來檢測模式偵測盈餘管理的能力。顯著水準與檢定力分別以模式犯型一誤差與型二誤差的比率來衡量。所有模式均採用橫斷面法估計裁決性應計項目，並分別以母公司報表與合併報表估計。應計模式的顯著水準與檢定力係參考Dechow, Sloan, and Sweeney (1995)的實證步驟，檢定力的模擬採用Brown and Warner (1980)所提出的方法。
研究結果發現，Jones及修正後Jones模式在加入營運現金流量變動數的變數後，與設定的顯著水準無顯著差異且檢定力最高，加入資產報酬率變數於模式中，並不能有效控制顯著水準或是提高檢定力。在運用合併報表與母公司報表估計裁決性應計項目方面，有些模式在以母公司報表估計時表現較好(如：模式中加入資產報酬率變數)，有些模式以合併報表估計時表現較佳(如：原始的Jones及修正後Jones模式)。

關鍵字

裁決性應計項目 ； 盈餘管理

並列摘要

This study investigates the relative ability of various accrual models in detecting earnings management. Prior research shows that extant discretionary accrual models are misspecified when applied to firms with extreme financial performance. Therefore, we focus on the Jones, modified Jones model and their variations to control firm performance (e.g. inclusion of ROA or CFO in the accrual models). We evaluate specification and power of each accrual model under our investigation. The accrual models are estimated cross-sectionally using two sets of data, parent-only financial statements and consolidated financial statements. We follow the steps outlined in Dechow, Sloan, and Sweeney (1995) to assess the specification and use a simulation procedure developed by Brown and Warner (1980) to assess the power of each model.
The empirical results suggest that the Jones and modified Jones model including the change of cash flow from operations is best specified and most powerful in our study. The inclusion of return on assets in the accrual models cannot effectively improve model specification and power. On the perspective of utilizing parent-only or consolidated financial statements, some models perform better under parent-only financial statements (e.g. inclusion of ROA in the model), and some perform better under the consolidated financial statements (e.g. the original Jones and modified Jones model).
Our paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating the superiority of the model proposed by Kasznik (1999). This model has been ignored by earnings management research. We suggest that future study should test the performance of this model using other contexts. Further evidence in other countries will shed more light on the usefulness of this model.

並列關鍵字

discretionary accruals ； Jones model ； earnings management

參考文獻

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