金融機構對於一個國家的經濟發展是相當重要的,貨幣政策可經由銀行放款進而影響社會實質產出,即銀行對於資金貸放的鬆緊,會影響到消費者、企業等倚賴銀行資金者的消費及投資意願,進而,可由金融體系中的放款餘額變動,會對於經濟體系形成影響。另一方面,銀行仍以營利為目的,放款與存款的利差即是其利潤所在,一筆良好的放款除了能替銀行獲得利息收入外,也能安全的將本金收回,因此,在審核放款上必須相當嚴謹,故銀行在放款時,必然會考慮總體經濟因素,畢竟大環境景氣對於各行各業都會造成一定程度的影響。 本研究採用複迴歸模型探討總體經濟變數對於銀行對民營企業放款餘額之影響,結論得到在1997年12月至2008年3月期間,台灣出口貿易額、通貨發行額、重貼現率三項總體經濟變數,對同期間銀行對民營企業放款餘額存在正向影響;貨幣供給M1b日平均年增率、工業生產指數年增率、躉售物價指數年增率、失業率四項總體經濟變數,對同期間銀行對民營企業放款餘額存在反向影響。由於本研究模型之配適度相當高,實證結果可知銀行對民營企業放款餘額確實深受總體經濟變數之影響。
Financial institution is important to a nation’s economic development. The monetary policy through bank loans affect social real output which bank’s loan can affect consumers and enterprises. Consequently, the economic system can be affected by the change in the balance of bank loan. On the other hand, bank is for profit which means its profit comes from the difference of loan and saving interest. A good loan helps the bank not only receive interest income but also get the lent money back safely. As s result, banks in making loans must be prudent and consider macroeconomic factors. Nevertheless, the overall economic environment to a certain extent affects industries. This study use multiple regression model to explore the impact of macroeconomic variables on the balance of bank loans. The results show that Taiwan’s export trade, the amount of currency issuance, and the re-discount rate from December 1997 to March 2008 have positive effects on the balance of bank loans to private enterprise in the same period. And the annual growth rate of M1b daily average, the annual growth rate of industrial production index, annual growth rate of wholesale price index, and the unemployment rate have negative effect on the balance of bank loans to private enterprise in the same period. Because of the highly adequate model of this study, empirical results find bank loans to private enterprises are affected deeply by macroeconomic variables.