本研究主要是在一個整體經濟體系的架構下,探討外在能源衝擊對我國經濟所可能帶來的影響。本研究以社會會計矩陣 (social accounting matrix, SAM) 為基礎,利用乘數分解、結構路徑分析及價格模型分析,探討原油、電力或是其他能源之外在衝擊對台灣經濟及產業所可能產生的影響。除了上述之外,本研究也嘗試利用SAM架構下之限制固定價格乘數分析,比較政府限制能源使用量及提升能源使用效率等兩種政策措施對我國產業產生影響的差別,從而提出具建設性之政策建議。 本研究先以台灣之投入產出表為基礎,結合國民所得帳資料,編製了1996、2001及2006年之49產業部門SAM表,接著再進行各項分析。SAM乘數分析、結構路徑分析及價格模型分析結果均顯示,能源的外生衝擊將對台灣經濟體系多數部門產生顯著的影響;至於限制能源使用量相對於提升能源使用效率,將會使大部分的部門產出顯著減少,因此若減少能源供給量,將會對經濟有顯著負面影響,提高能源效率相對於限制能源使用量應是較佳之政策。
This study aims to examine the potential effects of exogenous energy shocks on the economy of Taiwan under an economy-wide framework. The social accounting matrix (SAM) framework has been served as the basis of the analysis. SAM multiplier decomposition, structural path analysis, and price model analysis are then used to analyze the effects of oil, electricity and other energy shocks may have on the Taiwanese economy. In addition to the above, this study also uses the constrained fixed-price model to explore the differential effects of two policies: restricting energy use and improving energy efficiency. The SAMs for 1996, 2001 and 2006 are compiled by integrating input-output tables with national accounts for the corresponding years. There are 49 industrial sectors in the matrices, which has enabled us to explore a wide variety of sectoral results. The results of the analysis indicate that exogenous energy shocks will have significant effects on the industrial outputs and prices of sectors. Moreover, to reduce energy use, improving energy efficiency as compared to limit energy use directly seems to be a better policy action, as the latter will generate much bigger negative effects to the economy.