台灣貿易財能源及碳含量分析-投入產出結構分解之應用

Energy and Carbon Embodied in International Trade of Taiwan:An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis

張雅棠(Ya-Tang Chang)

指導教授 ： 林晉勗 ； 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201300984

摘要

經濟快速發展的過程中常伴隨著使用大量的化石燃料，然而過度倚賴化石燃料的結果，也導致大氣中的溫室氣體濃度大幅提高。近年來，氣候變遷問題受到世界各地的矚目，其中，二氧化碳又是造成溫室效應最主要的溫室氣體；再者，台灣由於地理位置關係及缺乏自然資源，國際貿易則成為最主要的經濟活動之一，有鑑於此，致力減少國際貿易過程的二氧化碳排放，已逐漸成為台灣必須亟力面對及解決的問題。
本研究估算了台灣1996、2001及2006年各產業部門產品的能源及二氧化碳含量，並探討出口產品能源及碳含量的變化及主要影響因素。我們利用投入產出之結構分解分析，將可能導致出口能源及碳含量的變動的因素分成五種，分別為直接能源效率、能源消費結構、中間投入結構、出口結構及出口量等。分析結果顯示，1996至2001年期間，除了總出口量因素之外，出口品的能源及含碳量增加主要係受到直接能源效率、中間投入結構、出口結構因素的變動影響；然而，2001至2006年期間，出口品含碳量之增加最主要是來自於出口結構大幅度的變動。
本研究也同時探討政府的能源相關政策是否對減少產品之能源及碳含量有所幫助。本研究著重在分析課徵碳稅後產品及出口之碳含量的變動，模擬分析結果顯示，1996至2001年間，課徵碳稅後的產品及出口之碳含量會有些微的下降，然而，2001至2006年期間，課徵碳稅後的產品及出口之碳含量卻會有明顯的下降，顯示對後段期間課徵碳稅將較具政策有效性。

關鍵字

碳稅 ； 能源密集度 ； 結構分解分析 ； 投入產出 ； 碳含量

並列摘要

There is an increasing concern about climate change around the world. CO2 is one of the major greenhouse gases (GHG) causing global warming. Moreover, international trade is a major economic activity in Taiwan. As a consequence, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in international trade have become an imperative thing for Taiwan and are also gaining momentum all over the world.
This study computes the energy and carbon intensities of the Taiwanese economy in 1996, 2001 and 2006 to figure out the changes of energy and carbon embodied in products and exports and their contributing factors. We use the structural decomposition analysis to find out the relative contribution of five factors causing the changes in the energy and carbon embodied in exports. From 1996 to 2001, the changes in the direct energy efficiency, the structure of intermediate inputs and the structure of exports are the most important factors contributed to the changes of energy and carbon embodied in exports in Taiwan. On the other hand, the structure of exports has been the most important factor between 2001 and 2006.
This study also explores whether energy policy could have effectively reduced the energy and carbon embodied in exports in Taiwan. Our results of imposing carbon tax on using fossil fuels reveal that the carbon embodied in exports would have decreased only moderately from 1996 to 2001 after taxation. However, the carbon embodied in exports would have decreased significantly from 2001 to 2006 after taxation, implying that carbon tax would have been a more effective policy in the latter period.

並列關鍵字

Energy intensity ； input-output ； embodied carbon ； structural decomposition analysis ； carbon tax

參考文獻

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