國內總體經濟因素對共同基金影響之研究

A Study on the Impacts of Macroeconomic Factors on Mutual Funds in Taiwan

郭彥宏(Yen-Hung Kuo)

指導教授 ： 何瓊芳

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200800190

摘要

早期傳統社會投資管道以存款及房地產為主，但自從股票市場成為全民運動後，股票投資變成重要的工具。近年來，國內整體金融生態發生重大變化，投信業經營面臨更多挑戰，如何分析總體經濟優劣勢及選擇最佳的投資策略，以求基金的最佳績效，不僅是管理者的目標，也是社會投資大眾共同關心的課題，經濟變數和共同基金之間的關聯常是研究探討的議題之一。共同基金有更專業的投資管理，但是這優勢是不僅仰賴基金經理人的經驗及專業知識也仰賴總體經濟。本研究的目的即在了解總體經濟變數對共同基金淨值的影響，本研究並試著了解不同總體經濟下的投資績效。
本研究主要是去驗證在台灣的總體經濟變數與共同基金淨值的關係，本研究使用一些總體經濟變數的月資料，如2003年到2007年的進口總額、出口總額、消費者物價指數、通貨膨脹率、匯率、貨幣供給與股票市場資料，並試著驗證這些變數對選定共同基金類型淨值的影響。本研究使用迴歸技術預測這些變數對共同基金淨值的影響。此外，為使本研究更趨嚴謹，並以強迫進入法與逐步迴歸分析法作前後比較。研究結果顯示台灣股票指數、消費者信心指數、貨幣供給額(M1b)年增率、台銀1年定存利率、OPEC原油報價在研究期間內會對淨值造成影響，而其他變數對於淨值的影響則不顯著。

關鍵字

共同基金 ； 總體經濟變數

並列摘要

Unlike the traditional investments in saving and real state, stock markets have become an important investment tool among all the local people in Taiwan. In recent years, however, the domestic financial environment has changed a great deal that put a lot of challenges on the investment trust industry. To understand the macroeconomic advantages and to choose best investment strategies have become not only the management goals but also common concerns of ordinary investors. The discussions among mutual funds and macroeconomic factors are always one of subjects for the academic research. Mutual fund is relied heavily on the professional knowledge of fund managers as well as macroeconomic situation. The purpose of this study is to understand the macroeconomics on net value of mutual funds in Taiwan. This study tries to understand the investment performance under different macroeconomic environment.
This study attempts to reveal the relationships between the macro economic variables and the net asset value of the mutual funds in Taiwan. This study incorporate the monthly data of several economic variables of the national input, national export, consumer product index, inflation rate, exchange rate, money supply, aggregate equity market between 2003 and 2007, and tries to reveal the relative influence of these variables on the net asset values of selected mutual fund families. This study applied the regression analyses and tried to predict the chosen variables on the mutual fund net asset values, both enter and stepwise regression analysis were applied in the study and make comparison. The results showed that certain variables like the Taiwan stock price index, Consumer Confidence Index, annual growth Rate of M1b interest rate, nominal interest rate of Taiwan bank, and oil price of OPEC have influenced in the net asset value movement in the considered period, while the other variables have negative impact on the net asset value of mutual fund.

並列關鍵字

Mutual Funds ； Macroeconomic Factors

參考文獻

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