舞弊與風險因子關聯性之研究─以台灣上市櫃公司之實證研究

The Relation between Fraud and Risk Factors─An Empirical Study of Taiwan Listed Companies

戴志欣(Chi-Hsin Dai)

指導教授 ： 張慧珊

中原大學/商學院/會計學系/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200900532

摘要

摘要
公司爆發舞弊已經不是一件稀奇的事，在台灣有力霸、博達、訊碟、皇統、陞技等企業，透過與複雜海外子孫公司進行假交易，虛增營收，高估資產矇騙社會大眾；在重大金融弊案方面亦有法國興業銀行與在1995年的霸菱銀行交易員舞弊，百年企業因此倒閉，管理人員身陷獄中，社會大眾因巨型金融機構倒閉而對金融監理機制不信任；在美國，也有安隆(Erron)、全錄(Xerox)、世界通訊(Worldcom)、泰可國際(Tyco)、環球電訊(Global Crossing)等等大規模企業相繼發生舞弊案件，因此各國均訂立相關法案，以減少舞弊的發生。

而先前學者著重於財務因素與舞弊間之關連性，或是公司治理因素與舞弊之關連性。而先前學者較少利用公司綜合因素與舞弊之關連性來探討此議題。因此本研究欲採用Cressey(1953)風險因子概念並與舞弊之間關聯性做整合性的結果測試。並針對舞弊發生時會呈現給公司不同程度的壓力、機會與合理性找出合理的替代變數做實證研究。並參考我國審計43號公報所提之台灣公司特性，期待能得出舞弊相關因素，並利用所得出相關因素，使得主關機關、投資大眾和會計師能考量。並更期望能近一步利用我們所定義的風險因子歸納出的綜合財務與公司治理要素來預測潛在於台灣上市櫃公司舞弊情形。

而本研究期間為民國九十年至民國九十六年，在報紙專業雜誌中被報導舞弊、內線交易、地雷股及掏空的公司為研究樣本，採1配2的方式尋找未被報導的公司，放入本研究所建立的probit模型中，並針對結果做出分析。其結果顯示公司風險因子壓力構面中，財務穩定度方面，舞弊前兩年資產成長率、銷貨成長率與舞弊顯著相關，外部壓力方面，負債比率與舞弊呈顯著相關，個人財務與公司經營產生連結方面，大股東持股與董監事持股質押予舞弊顯著相關。在風險因子合理性相關構面中，舞弊前兩年更換會計師和舞弊前兩年更換財務主管與舞弊呈顯著相關。

關鍵字

風險因子 ； 公司治理 ； 舞弊

並列摘要

Abstract

For recent years, reports of business failure keep pouring and a series of issues on financial crisis has appeared consequently. This effect ripples through the global finance circle. Those failures imply that financial scandals, crises and bankruptcies would occur with ease while the frauds occurred. Therefore, this study selects 87 fraud cases and 154 normal companies as research examples, and uses risk factors of SAS No.99 via an application of a probit analysis to analyze the differences in risk factors between the fraud and non-fraud companies and we develop proxy variables for pressure, opportunity and rationalization to examine an array of potential risk factors and identify a comprehensive set of coexistent factors.

The results of this research indicated that there are relations between fraud and factors such as (1)when the financial stability decreases, the likelihood of fraud increases, (2)when the external pressure increases, the likelihood of fraud increases, (3)when executives have a significant stake in the firm, the likelihood of fraud increases, (4)when the stocks pledged by directors increase, the likelihood of fraud increases, (5)when companies change auditors in the two years prior to fraud occurrence, the likelihood of fraud increases, (6) when companies change financial executives in the two years prior to fraud occurrence, the likelihood of fraud increases. This research contributes to literature by examining and identifying a set of risk factors to develop a model. We believe that the model based upon the risk factors is useful for academics, standard setters, CPA firms and users of financial statements.

並列關鍵字

Corporate Governance ； Risk Factor ； Fraud

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