協同規劃預測分析機制之發展 ─以唱片產業為例

Development of a Collaborative Planning and Forecasting Analysis Mechanism for Music Record Industry

林仁凱(Ren-Kai Lin)

指導教授 ： 宮大川

中原大學/工學院/工業工程研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200700583

摘要

摘要
在全球資訊科技與網路快速發展下，消費市場轉變成高度競爭的環境，產品生命週期日漸縮短，顧客的需求導向更為重要，企業為了在此快速變動的市場中成長，無不費盡心思在產品的生產上，必須持續創新以符合現今的市場環境、消費者偏好與社會價值系統；在商業模式上，以往敵對的企業關係已經不存在，取而代之的是協同商務的商業模式，如何有效的結合供應鏈上的夥伴，共同面對快速動態變化的環境，為現今創造企業競爭優勢的關鍵。
藉此，本研究將規劃設計出一協同規劃預測機制，研究範圍針對問題特性為上下游企業必須快速回應顧客、互相分享資訊、有協同合作之必要，或遇到產品特性為生命週期短、需求變動幅度大與產品多樣性之創新性產品，造成需求預測不準確、需求變動頻繁、經常性庫存過多或缺貨問題的企業，並以唱片業當中的唱片公司與唱片行銷通路為研究對象，依據Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Stands(VICS)所提出協同規劃預測補貨 (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment, CPFR)商業流程，並參考唱片業的作業流程，使唱片公司與唱片行銷通路能在協同規劃預測機制下創造一個雙向的互動溝通程序，並佐以兩個數學模式，其一為銷售預測模式，乃是基於唱片產品之口碑影響力、銷售趨勢、歌手等級、唱片類型、假日效應等因素產生銷售預測值作為合作夥伴雙方之參考值，另一為銷售預測調整模式，因應唱片銷售量難以掌握，在唱片上市後，評估實際銷售量與原先的預測量差異過大時，透過案例式推理法，利用原先銷售預測所考量的銷售因子外，另外加入唱片上市後的銷售量資訊，找尋過去相似的唱片，作為異常處理的參考案例。期望透過完整的協同規劃預測機制，提供唱片業者面對難以掌握的市場時，可以精準的瞭解市場對於唱片產品的需求，且在發生異常事件時擁有即時回應之能力。

關鍵字

銷售預測 ； 協同規劃預測補貨 ； 創新性產品

並列摘要

Abstract
The vigorous development of the Information technology and Internet has led the
consumer market into the highly competitive environment. Facing the shortened
product cycle time and various choices of products, enterprise must develop the ability
of innovation to chime with the market environment and consumer preference. It’s now
an era of mutual-cooperation in the business model. Thus how to effectively integrate
the business collaboration of the members in the supply chain is the long last
competitive key point when dealing with this fiercely changeable market.
The purpose of this research is to design a collaborative planning and forecasting
analysis mechanism that based on the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and
Replenishment (CPFR) business process model published by the Voluntary
Interindustry Commerce Standards (VICS) Association. The researching ranges are
mainly focusing in music record industry, the necessity of the collaboration between up
and downstream suppliers that must to quickly respond consumer and sharing business
information or the inaccuracy of the innovation product demand forecast, the frequency
of the demand changes, unable to control the demand information, high inventories and
loss sales on both supplier and retailer. And also the purpose of the research is to
proceed with analysis and study for the music record industries which had mentioned
above. Therefore, the collaborative planning and forecasting analysis mechanism
includes two issues. The first issue is to plan the music records industry business
process model in accordance with as-is operation process and CPFR business process,
which may lead the music company and retailer have the bidirectional communication.
The second issue is to design the sales forecasting and its adjustment model. The sales
forecasting model which considered the marketing mix factors, such as word-of-mouth,
sales trend, singer degree, the type of music record and holiday-effect provide themusic companies and retailer an advise sales forecasting value of new release music
record. Additionally the sales forecasting adjustment model consider the actuality sales
factory , including testing of the past and new released music record by using case
retrieval of Case-Based Reasoning (CBR)similarity factors, and estimations of the new
released music sales records by using the sales records from past released music
records that have similar topics. These are the reference bases for providing music
record enterprises to control accurately the uncertainly market and respond quickly to
the exception events.

並列關鍵字

sales forecasting ； innovation product ； CPFR

參考文獻

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