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  • 學位論文

產業生命週期對廠商存活與規模關係之影響

The relation between firm size and survival under different product life cycle stages

指導教授 : 朱珊瑩

摘要


由於在產業生命週期的發展中,各種系統性變化如廠商家數、創新形式、資訊的來源等,皆因階段不同而有異。因此,某一影響廠商存活的因素其影響效果亦可能因階段的不同而改變。是故,Agarwal and Audretsch (2001) 針對在過去文獻裡有關廠商參進規模與廠商存活的爭議做進一步的分析,並認為廠商參進規模對廠商存活的影響必須視廠商參進的產業生命週期階段而定。因此,在考慮了產業生命週期對相關研究的重要性之後;當廠商存活的分析欲加入產業生命週期的影響時,正確劃分產業生命週期的重要性由此可見。然而,在過去文獻裡所使用的傳統劃分方式對樣本的分配及變異有著基本限制,且未含有統計上的意義。因此,本文欲以新的劃分方式來解決這些問題,並期待本文可以在廠商存活與產業生命週期的研究裡得到一更符合預期的結果。由於產業生命週期的初始階段及成熟階段的廠商淨參進率分別為正值及負值,因此,兩個階段的淨參進率平均值應分別為正、負。故本文認為,在廠商淨參進率的時間序列資料中,應隱含結構轉變的情況;所以本文欲以Chow的結構轉變檢定進行產業生命週期的劃分。在實證結果的分析裡,Cox比例危險迴歸模型中,以結構轉變點劃分成熟階段時,小廠較大廠所增加的危險率已下降。生命表分析法中,小規模廠商在結構轉變點劃分出的成熟階段裡與初始階段參進下的廠商存活比例相較,其下降的存活比例亦已比大規模之下要少;而從Gaussian Kernel Smoother Estimator的結果可發現,大、小規模廠商在各階段裡的危險率在各年紀下相異。故,由本文的實證結果可知,在使用結構轉變檢定劃分產業生命週期後,所得到的,實證結果將更符合文獻的論點;亦即以大規模在初始階段參進的廠商具有存活優勢,但小規模廠商在成熟階段參進時,其規模上的劣勢已降低。

並列摘要


Because of the developments over industry life cycle stages, some systemic changes such as the number of firms, the form of innovation, source of information will be different in stages. Therefore the effect of a certain factor influenced firm survival might change with industry life cycle stages. By this way, Agarwal and Audretsch (2001) proced the research about firm entry size and firm survival, and they found that the relation between firm entry size and firm survival should depend on different industry life cycle stages. Therefore the classification of industry life cycle stages is important by this way. However the conventional procedure of classification has some drawbacks in some ways : the first, the conventional classification has some limit about the distribution and variance of sample ; second, the classification of industry life cycle stages do not have any statistical significance. After considering the importance to relevant research of industry life cycle, we want to try another method to solve those problems and hope that we can be more comprehensive in the study about firm performance and industry life cycle stages. About our empirical result, in the analysis of Cox Proportional Hazard regression, the hazard rate of small firms compared with the big ones declined if we use Chow Test to identify the industry life cycle stage. In the analysis of Life table, when we use Chow Test to identify the industry life cycle, the declined survival rate of small firms in mature stage is smaller than big firms. And the Gaussian Kernel Smoother, the hazard rate of small firms and big firms is different with firm age.

參考文獻


Agarwal R. and M. Gort (1996), The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(3), 489-498.
Agarwal, R., and D. B. Audretsch (2001), Does Entry Size Matter?:The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival, The Journal of Industrial Economics, 49(1), 21-43.
Audretsch D.B. and T. Mahmood (1995), New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 77(1), 97-103.
Audretsch D.B., E. Santarelli, and M. Vivarelli (1999), Start-up size and industrial dynamics: some evidence from Italian manufacturing, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 17, 965-983.
Chow G. C. (1960), Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions, Econometrica, 28(3), 591-605.

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