中國房地產泡沫檢測——以北京、天津、上海、廣州及深圳為例

中國大陸房地產市場的持續熱絡以及房價的持續飆升，使得中國房價有無泡沫受到全世界的矚目。研究房價泡沫檢測方面，Phillips 等人 (2015) 提出了新的單根檢定，也就是以 GSADF 檢定對房價泡沫的形成與消失作動態檢測；而中國大陸作為計畫經濟的典範，政府政策對於經濟發展的重要性不言而喻，事實上，過去中國大陸政府提出了相當多調控房市的政策，卻也受到不小爭議。本研究希望利用GSADF 的房價泡沫檢測來探討中國大陸房市政策的合理性。結果我們發現：五個樣本城市均曾經出現房價泡沫現象，但都是特定期間內，符合過去對於房價泡沫的看法；更重要地，房價泡沫的期間大多與房市政策相吻合，顯示政府的房市政策的執行具有合理性。

關鍵字

房市泡沫；房市政策；一線城市； GSADF

並列摘要

The roaring Chinese housing market have become a focus of world attention. Using a generalized version of sup ADF (GSADF), this paper is to examine the Chinese housing bubble and further to study the rationality of the government's housing policies. The Chinese policies as the most importance in housing market under this command economy provoke a great deal of controversies. GSADF is firstly presented by Philips et al.(2015) for detecting housing bubbles and this test is able to investigate bubble forming and collapsing without delay and thus it is suitable for Chinese housing market. Our study has found that five Chinese megacities have had bubbles in specified periods, matching the policies. This result therefore supports the reasonableness of government’s housing policies.