藉由馬可夫鏈模型分析供應鏈風險

供應鏈之風險是無法避免的，由於目前全球災難事件接二連三的出現，例如最近於日本發生之海嘯、龍捲風襲擊美國、洪水及地震的發生以及恐怖主義及政治的動盪，因此供應鏈將會發生中斷，而所謂的中斷意旨公司停止運作以至於產生無法使用之產品；而當供應商面臨到供應中斷時，供應商必須要有能力恢復並使其達到正常之運作狀態；而面對供應之風險，製造商必須要能做出迅速之反應並更換其供應商當原有之供應商無法履行訂單任務時，而雖然主要之供應商通常都能夠履行任務，但製造商仍然需要監督其備用之供應商。本研究由於考慮以上供應鏈之狀況，因此透過馬可夫鏈模型及可靠度工程之理論進行分析並探討供應中斷對於供應鏈所造成之影響；本研究將考慮以下兩種模式：兩個供應商（由主要之供應商及備用之供應商所組成）、三個供應商（由一個主要供應商及兩個備用之供應商組成）；而每種模式將透過兩種情況進行討論之。第一種情況假設其供應商之故障率及修復率相同，而第二種情況則是假設其故障率及修復率之參數為不相同。本研究同時也將由於供應中斷造成製造商之財務影響因素納入考慮。本研究將可以提供給予藉由使用馬可夫鏈模型及可靠度工程概念並探討供應鏈中斷時之供應商及製造商之績效的初步研究。

關鍵字

供應鏈風險；馬可夫鏈模型；穩定可用性；供應中斷

並列摘要

Supply chain risks are unavoidable due to the common occurrence of tragic events such as the recent tsunami in Japan, tornado attack in different cities of US, floods, earthquake, terrorism, and political instability. As a result, disruption will occur. Disruptions refer to the stoppage of a company’s operation resulting to the unavailability of products. When the supplier faces disruptions, it must be able to restore to its normal operation. In response to supply risk, the manufacturer must act quickly whenever its suppliers cannot fulfill its order by switching to another supplier. Though the active supplier delivers for the manufacturer, the manufacturer needs to detect its standby supplier’s failure. Considering this supply chain scenario, this study proposes a Markov chain model to analyze the effect of disruption on supply chain availability using Markov chain and employing reliability engineering concepts. The study considers two models: two supplier (one active-one standby supplier) and three-supplier (one-active-two-standby supplier). Each model is discussed in two cases. The first case assumes that the failure rate and repair rate of the suppliers are the same. While in the second case, these parameters are different. The financial impacts of disruption on the manufacturer’s profit are included in the study. This paper could serve as a preliminary study in supply chain disruption that considers the performance of suppliers and manufacturer in a supply chain by employing reliability engineering concepts and Markov chain model.

並列關鍵字

disruption ； Markov model ； steady-state availability ； Supply chain risk

參考文獻

3. Chongchao, H., Gang, Y., Song, W., Xzanjza, W., 2006. Disruption management for supply chain coordination with exponential demand function. Acta Mathematica Scientia, 26 (4), 655-669.

4. Chopra, S., Meindl, P., 2002. Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operation.IIE Transactions, 34, 221-222.

7. Cooper, M.C., Lambert, D.M., Pagh, J.D., 1997.Supply chain management: More than a new name for logistics. International Journal of Logistics Management, 8 (1), 1-13.

9. Giunipero, L. C., Eltantawy, R. A., 2004. Securing the upstream supply chain: a risk management approach. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 34, 698-713.

10. Harland, C., Brenchley, R., Walker, H., 2003. Risk in supply networks. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 9, 51–62.

國際替代計量

藉由馬可夫鏈模型分析供應鏈風險

全文下載

主題瀏覽