特殊活動之運輸需求行為分析-以台北小巨蛋演唱會為例

Special Events Transportation Demand Behavior Analysis -A Case Study of Concerts in Taipei Arena

呂佩容(Pei-Jung Lu)

指導教授 ： 張美香

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201200944

摘要

早期許多運具選擇的研究較多注重於平日的活動與旅運行為，然而，隨著社會和經濟的發展，都市居民的休閒活動越來越豐富，假日旅運量不斷地在增加；近年來，都市的流行文化與休閒活動興起，參與演唱會已經成為假日休閒活動之一。超過一萬名以上的演唱會參與者於預定的時間聚集在演唱會場館，故演唱會活動可被視為一策畫型特殊活動。而大型演唱會經常造成交通壅塞與突發性延滯問題，故主管機關必須採用有效的交通管理策略，以減少此一事件的負面衝擊；而制定交通事件管理計畫必須進行的首要工作就是預測事件參與者之旅運需求。然而此一方面的研究相對較為缺乏，需要更深入的研究。故本研究以演唱會活動為例，探討策畫型特殊活動參與者的運具選擇行為。
本研究選定以北台灣熱門的演唱會舉辦場館-台北小巨蛋為例進行實證研究。該場地之運具替選方案有機車、汽車、捷運與公車。以問卷調查的方式，調查1008位受訪者。使用混合敘述性偏好與顯示性偏好資訊，運用多項羅吉特模式和巢式羅吉特模式建構台北小巨蛋演唱會參與者之旅運需求模式。共生變數為總旅行時間與總旅行成本；研究結果顯示：不考慮出發/抵達時間之顯示性偏好資訊所建構之運具選擇模式，性別、年齡、家戶機車擁有數、出發地區、預計抵達時間與主要運具為其顯著影響變數；而考慮出發/抵達時間之顯示性偏好的資訊所建構之運具選擇模式，性別、年齡、家戶機車擁有數、是否有前端旅次、是否曾經來過、出發地區、歌迷年資、預計抵達時間與旅次起點型態為其顯著影響變數。相對而言，後者所界定之運具選擇影響因素較前者所界定的因素更可以呈現休閒旅次特性。此外，本研究經由彈性分析與敏感度分析，發現減少捷運的旅行時間與旅行成本以及增加私人運具之旅行時間，將有助於提高事件參與者使用大眾運輸工具，以減少大眾運具的旅行時間之效果最為明顯。

關鍵字

巢式羅吉特模式 ； 多項羅吉特模式 ； 敘述性偏好方法 ； 運具選擇 ； 特殊事件

並列摘要

Most of earlier mode choice researches have predominantly focused on weekday activity and travel. However, with the development of society and economy, leisure life has become increasingly rich urban residents. Weekend travel has been increasing over time. Recently, as the rise of urban popular culture and leisure, concert participation has become one of the weekend leisure activities. More than ten thousands of audiences congregate in the venue at a scheduled time. A concert activity is regarded as a planned special event (PSE). A large concert frequently causes congestion and unexpected delays to travelers. Thus public agencies must apply proven traffic management techniques to mitigate any possible adverse impacts that may result from this event. The first job of making a traffic incident management plan is to predicate the travel demand of event participators. However, research in this area is sparse. More detailed research is needed. Taking a concert event as an example, our study investigates PSE participators’ behaviors of mode choice.
Taipei Arena has been chosen for the case study because it is a popular concert venue in North Taiwan. Frequently used alternative modes of travel are motorcycle, car, MRT and bus. By a personal interview survey, we have 1008 respondents. In this study, multinomial logit models and nested logit models using mixed stated preference and revealed preference information are estimated to explore the travel demand of concert participates at Taipei Arena. Generic variables of these logit models are the travel time and the travel cost. Without considering revealed-preference based departure/arrival time data, the results show that significant explanatory variables include gender, age, total number of motorcycles being owned by the households, trip origin, expected time of arrival and intercity travel mode. With considering revealed-preference based departure/arrival time data, the results show that significant explanatory variables of the multinomial logit models are gender, age, total number of motorcycles being owned by the households, indirect trip, trip experience, trip origin, seniority in fans, expected time of arrival and trip type. Obviously, the latter models are better than the former models in identifying the factors that influence travel mode choices for demonstrating characteristics of recreational trips. In addition, we perform elastic analysis and sensitivity analysis, it is found that to decrease transit travel time or transit travel cost, and to increase travel time of private vehicles will promote event participators to use public transit. The transfer effect of decreasing transit travel time is the most powerful.

並列關鍵字

Nested Logit Model ； Multinomial Logit Model ； Stated Preference Method ； Mode Choice ； Special Events

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